Research · Event studies
What happened after…
Each study detects an event on point-in-time snapshots (at most once per token per 24h), then measures returns and drawdowns 1h, 6h, 24h and 3d later. Statistical context — not a forecast.
Studies
Refreshed hourly · last run 2026-10-11 18:07 UTC
Event: Thesis velocity > 3× baseline
What happens after thesis velocity triples?
- Samples
- 51
- Median 1h
- 0.0%
- Median 24h
- -0.8%
- Median max DD 24h
- -17.4%
- Positive after 24h
- 47%
Confidence: MEDIUMOct 8, 2026 → Oct 11, 2026 · 3.2 days2 caveats
Computed 34m agoDistributions
Event: 5+ high-quality authors in 24h
What happens after 5 high-quality authors converge?
- Samples
- 0
- Median 1h
- —
- Median 24h
- —
- Median max DD 24h
- —
- Positive after 24h
- —
Confidence: Insufficient dataOct 8, 2026 → Oct 11, 2026 · 3.2 days2 caveats
Computed 34m agoDistributions
Event: Social rising, price flat
What happens when social activity rises but price does not?
- Samples
- 106
- Median 1h
- -0.7%
- Median 24h
- -2.5%
- Median max DD 24h
- -13.0%
- Positive after 24h
- 42%
Confidence: HIGHOct 8, 2026 → Oct 11, 2026 · 3.2 days3 caveats
Computed 34m agoDistributions
Event: Crowding above 75
What happens when a few accounts dominate the attention?
- Samples
- 14
- Median 1h
- -0.8%
- Median 24h
- -12.0%
- Median max DD 24h
- -17.6%
- Positive after 24h
- 14%
Confidence: LOWOct 8, 2026 → Oct 11, 2026 · 3.2 days3 caveats
Computed 34m agoDistributions
Event: 40+ unique authors in 24h
What happens when attention gets broad?
- Samples
- 3
- Median 1h
- -2.6%
- Median 24h
- -5.3%
- Median max DD 24h
- -7.7%
- Positive after 24h
- 33%
Confidence: Insufficient dataOct 8, 2026 → Oct 11, 2026 · 3.2 days4 caveats
Computed 34m agoDistributions
Event: Attention cooling sharply
What happens after thesis activity drops more than 60% hour-on-hour?
- Samples
- 47
- Median 1h
- -1.1%
- Median 24h
- -9.0%
- Median max DD 24h
- -16.5%
- Positive after 24h
- 32%
Confidence: MEDIUMOct 8, 2026 → Oct 11, 2026 · 3.2 days2 caveats
Computed 34m agoDistributions
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