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Fomo activity delayed · Last update: 23m ago · Market data delayed · Last update: 28m ago — affected numbers are dimmed and shown as of their last update.

Event studies
Event: 40+ unique authors in 24h

What happens when attention gets broad?

Detected on point-in-time snapshots; outcomes from the first price at or after each event. At most one event per token per 24h.

Live
Samples
2
Median 1h
-2.6%
Median 24h
+2.5%
Median max DD 24h
-9.8%
Positive after 24h
50%
Confidence: Insufficient data2 events with 24h outcomes · 1 token · 2026-10-08 → 2026-10-11computed 49m ago · backtest-v1.0

Definition

Rules evaluated on every snapshot (values as they were at that time).

WHENUnique authors 24h ≥ 40

  • Horizons: 1h, 6h, 24h, 3d · cooldown 24h per token.
  • Dead tokens are included and valued at their last observed price.
  • Events: 3 detected · 1 too recent for 24h · 0 without a price · 0 on tokens that died within 24h.

Caveats

Read these before the numbers.

  • Small sample (N=2) — treat as anecdotal
  • 100% of events come from 1 token
  • Short history (3.0 days of snapshots)
  • 1 event too recent to resolve (horizon ends after now) — excluded from statistics
  • Events overlap in time across tokens (market-wide moves affect many at once), so samples are not fully independent.
  • Crypto returns are heavily skewed: read the median and the distribution, not the mean.
  • Past outcomes after similar events describe history; they do not predict the next one.

Outcomes by horizon

Returns and the deepest drawdown before each horizon. Select a horizon to switch the distributions below.

Distributions after the event at

Return after 24h

N = 2 · Positive after 24h 50% (95% CI 9–91%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
+2.5%
CI -6.9% … +11.9%
Trimmed mean
+2.5%
10% each side
Mean
+2.5%
σ 13.3%
Range
-6.9% … +11.9%
Return after 24h histogram2 samples in 3 bins from -6.9% to +11.9%.median-6.9%+11.9%0%-5%+5%+10%
Return after 24h box plotMedian +2.5%, interquartile range -2.2% to +7.2%, whiskers -6.9% to +11.9%, 0 outliers (min -6.9%, max +11.9%).-6.9%+11.9%+2.5%
p5
-6.0%
p10
-5.0%
p25
-2.2%
p50
+2.5%
p75
+7.2%
p90
+10.0%
p95
+11.0%

Max drawdown within 24h

N = 2

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-9.8%
CI -12.0% … -7.7%
Trimmed mean
-9.8%
10% each side
Mean
-9.8%
σ 3.1%
Range
-12.0% … -7.7%
Max drawdown within 24h histogram2 samples in 3 bins from -12.0% to -7.7%.median-12.0%-7.7%-11%-10%-9%
Max drawdown within 24h box plotMedian -9.8%, interquartile range -10.9% to -8.8%, whiskers -12.0% to -7.7%, 0 outliers (min -12.0%, max -7.7%).-12.0%-7.7%-9.8%
p5
-11.8%
p10
-11.6%
p25
-10.9%
p50
-9.8%
p75
-8.8%
p90
-8.1%
p95
-7.9%

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.