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Event studies
Event: Thesis velocity > 3× baseline

What happens after thesis velocity triples?

Detected on point-in-time snapshots; outcomes from the first price at or after each event. At most one event per token per 24h.

Live
Samples
43
Median 1h
0.0%
Median 24h
+0.2%
Median max DD 24h
-17.4%
Positive after 24h
51%
Confidence: MEDIUM43 events with 24h outcomes · 34 tokens · 2026-10-08 → 2026-10-11computed 42m ago · backtest-v1.0

Definition

Rules evaluated on every snapshot (values as they were at that time).

WHENThesis velocity 1h > +200% AND Theses 1h ≥ 3

  • Horizons: 1h, 6h, 24h, 3d · cooldown 24h per token.
  • Dead tokens are included and valued at their last observed price.
  • Events: 56 detected · 13 too recent for 24h · 0 without a price · 0 on tokens that died within 24h.

Caveats

Read these before the numbers.

  • Short history (3.0 days of snapshots)
  • 13 events too recent to resolve (horizon ends after now) — excluded from statistics
  • Events overlap in time across tokens (market-wide moves affect many at once), so samples are not fully independent.
  • Crypto returns are heavily skewed: read the median and the distribution, not the mean.
  • Past outcomes after similar events describe history; they do not predict the next one.

Outcomes by horizon

Returns and the deepest drawdown before each horizon. Select a horizon to switch the distributions below.

Distributions after the event at

Return after 24h

N = 43 · Positive after 24h 51% (95% CI 37–65%)

Median
+0.2%
CI -8.5% … +3.9%
Trimmed mean
+0.4%
10% each side
Mean
+12.7%
σ 86.3%
Range
-76.6% … +523%
Return after 24h histogram43 samples in 10 bins from -76.6% to +523%. Tail bins: 3 above +64.2%.median-76.6%+523%0%+64.2%-50%+50%
Return after 24h box plotMedian +0.2%, interquartile range -12.7% to +10.5%, whiskers -40.3% to +41.6%, 7 outliers (min -76.6%, max +523%).-40.3%+41.6%+0.2%

2 below -58.4% (min -76.6%) · 3 above +59.7% (max +523%)

p5
-48.0%
p10
-37.6%
p25
-12.7%
p50
+0.2%
p75
+10.5%
p90
+41.5%
p95
+75.0%

Max drawdown within 24h

N = 43

Median
-17.4%
CI -20.7% … -12.4%
Trimmed mean
-19.2%
10% each side
Mean
-21.8%
σ 18.2%
Range
-78.2% … -0.4%
Max drawdown within 24h histogram43 samples in 10 bins from -78.2% to -0.4%.median-78.2%-0.4%-60%-40%-20%
Max drawdown within 24h box plotMedian -17.4%, interquartile range -28.2% to -9.8%, whiskers -54.6% to -0.4%, 2 outliers (min -78.2%, max -0.4%).-54.6%-0.4%-17.4%

2 below -66.5% (min -78.2%)

p5
-54.5%
p10
-51.2%
p25
-28.2%
p50
-17.4%
p75
-9.8%
p90
-4.8%
p95
-3.6%

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.