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Fomo activity delayed · Last update: 23m ago · Market data delayed · Last update: 27m ago — affected numbers are dimmed and shown as of their last update.

Event studies
Event: Attention cooling sharply

What happens after thesis activity drops more than 60% hour-on-hour?

Detected on point-in-time snapshots; outcomes from the first price at or after each event. At most one event per token per 24h.

Live
Samples
44
Median 1h
-1.1%
Median 24h
-8.4%
Median max DD 24h
-17.0%
Positive after 24h
34%
Confidence: MEDIUM44 events with 24h outcomes · 31 tokens · 2026-10-08 → 2026-10-11computed 48m ago · backtest-v1.0

Definition

Rules evaluated on every snapshot (values as they were at that time).

WHENAttention acceleration < -60% AND Theses 24h ≥ 10

  • Horizons: 1h, 6h, 24h, 3d · cooldown 24h per token.
  • Dead tokens are included and valued at their last observed price.
  • Events: 62 detected · 18 too recent for 24h · 0 without a price · 0 on tokens that died within 24h.

Caveats

Read these before the numbers.

  • Short history (3.0 days of snapshots)
  • 18 events too recent to resolve (horizon ends after now) — excluded from statistics
  • Events overlap in time across tokens (market-wide moves affect many at once), so samples are not fully independent.
  • Crypto returns are heavily skewed: read the median and the distribution, not the mean.
  • Past outcomes after similar events describe history; they do not predict the next one.

Outcomes by horizon

Returns and the deepest drawdown before each horizon. Select a horizon to switch the distributions below.

Distributions after the event at

Return after 24h

N = 44 · Positive after 24h 34% (95% CI 22–49%)

Median
-8.4%
CI -12.8% … -0.3%
Trimmed mean
-4.9%
10% each side
Mean
-1.9%
σ 32.1%
Range
-68.3% … +95.5%
Return after 24h histogram44 samples in 10 bins from -68.3% to +95.5%. Tail bins: 3 above +45.2%.median-68.3%+95.5%0%+45.2%-50%
Return after 24h box plotMedian -8.4%, interquartile range -15.4% to +2.9%, whiskers -38.9% to +30.0%, 8 outliers (min -68.3%, max +95.5%).-38.9%+30.0%-8.4%

1 below -54.1% (min -68.3%) · 3 above +45.2% (max +95.5%)

p5
-45.7%
p10
-31.2%
p25
-15.4%
p50
-8.4%
p75
+2.9%
p90
+31.9%
p95
+75.5%

Max drawdown within 24h

N = 44

Median
-17.0%
CI -24.5% … -14.0%
Trimmed mean
-19.4%
10% each side
Mean
-21.1%
σ 16.2%
Range
-71.2% … 0.0%
Max drawdown within 24h histogram44 samples in 10 bins from -71.2% to 0.0%.median-71.2%0.0%-60%-40%-20%
Max drawdown within 24h box plotMedian -17.0%, interquartile range -27.0% to -9.7%, whiskers -51.8% to 0.0%, 2 outliers (min -71.2%, max 0.0%).-51.8%0.0%-17.0%

1 below -63.2% (min -71.2%)

p5
-51.0%
p10
-42.8%
p25
-27.0%
p50
-17.0%
p75
-9.7%
p90
-3.6%
p95
-1.6%

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.