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Fomo activity delayed · Last update: 23m ago · Market data delayed · Last update: 28m ago — affected numbers are dimmed and shown as of their last update.

Event studies
Event: Crowding above 75

What happens when a few accounts dominate the attention?

Detected on point-in-time snapshots; outcomes from the first price at or after each event. At most one event per token per 24h.

Live
Samples
14
Median 1h
-0.8%
Median 24h
-12.0%
Median max DD 24h
-17.6%
Positive after 24h
14%
Confidence: LOW14 events with 24h outcomes · 10 tokens · 2026-10-08 → 2026-10-11computed 49m ago · backtest-v1.0

Definition

Rules evaluated on every snapshot (values as they were at that time).

WHENCrowding > 75 AND Theses 24h ≥ 10

  • Horizons: 1h, 6h, 24h, 3d · cooldown 24h per token.
  • Dead tokens are included and valued at their last observed price.
  • Events: 18 detected · 4 too recent for 24h · 0 without a price · 0 on tokens that died within 24h.

Caveats

Read these before the numbers.

  • Small sample (N=14) — treat as anecdotal
  • Short history (3.0 days of snapshots)
  • 4 events too recent to resolve (horizon ends after now) — excluded from statistics
  • Events overlap in time across tokens (market-wide moves affect many at once), so samples are not fully independent.
  • Crypto returns are heavily skewed: read the median and the distribution, not the mean.
  • Past outcomes after similar events describe history; they do not predict the next one.

Outcomes by horizon

Returns and the deepest drawdown before each horizon. Select a horizon to switch the distributions below.

Distributions after the event at

Return after 24h

N = 14 · Positive after 24h 14% (95% CI 4–40%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-12.0%
CI -17.2% … -6.5%
Trimmed mean
-2.6%
10% each side
Mean
+3.0%
σ 49.1%
Range
-46.2% … +120%
Return after 24h histogram14 samples in 6 bins from -46.2% to +120%. Tail bins: 2 above +12.4%.median-46.2%+120%0%+12.4%-20%
Return after 24h box plotMedian -12.0%, interquartile range -17.9% to -7.4%, whiskers -21.8% to -4.1%, 3 outliers (min -46.2%, max +120%).-21.8%-4.1%-12.0%

1 below -25.7% (min -46.2%) · 2 above -0.2% (max +120%)

p5
-30.4%
p10
-21.6%
p25
-17.9%
p50
-12.0%
p75
-7.4%
p90
+77.6%
p95
+115%

Max drawdown within 24h

N = 14

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-17.6%
CI -24.7% … -13.9%
Trimmed mean
-18.8%
10% each side
Mean
-20.2%
σ 11.7%
Range
-52.4% … -5.0%
Max drawdown within 24h histogram14 samples in 6 bins from -52.4% to -5.0%.median-52.4%-5.0%-40%-30%-20%-10%
Max drawdown within 24h box plotMedian -17.6%, interquartile range -24.0% to -14.0%, whiskers -29.2% to -5.0%, 1 outliers (min -52.4%, max -5.0%).-29.2%-5.0%-17.6%

1 below -34.5% (min -52.4%)

p5
-37.3%
p10
-29.1%
p25
-24.0%
p50
-17.6%
p75
-14.0%
p90
-10.0%
p95
-7.5%

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.