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Fomo activity delayed · Last update: 1h ago · Market data delayed · Last update: 1h ago — affected numbers are dimmed and shown as of their last update.

Event studies
Event: Social rising, price flat

What happens when social activity rises but price does not?

Detected on point-in-time snapshots; outcomes from the first price at or after each event. At most one event per token per 24h.

Live
Samples
98
Median 1h
-0.8%
Median 24h
-2.2%
Median max DD 24h
-12.4%
Positive after 24h
43%
Confidence: MEDIUM98 events with 24h outcomes · 74 tokens · 2026-10-08 → 2026-10-11computed 44m ago · backtest-v1.0

Definition

Rules evaluated on every snapshot (values as they were at that time).

WHENDivergence ≥ +25 AND Price change 1h ≤ +2% AND Price change 1h ≥ -2%

  • Horizons: 1h, 6h, 24h, 3d · cooldown 24h per token.
  • Dead tokens are included and valued at their last observed price.
  • Events: 159 detected · 60 too recent for 24h · 1 without a price · 0 on tokens that died within 24h.

Caveats

Read these before the numbers.

  • Short history (3.1 days of snapshots)
  • 60 events too recent to resolve (horizon ends after now) — excluded from statistics
  • 1 event had no price within 15 min of the event — excluded from statistics
  • Events overlap in time across tokens (market-wide moves affect many at once), so samples are not fully independent.
  • Crypto returns are heavily skewed: read the median and the distribution, not the mean.
  • Past outcomes after similar events describe history; they do not predict the next one.

Outcomes by horizon

Returns and the deepest drawdown before each horizon. Select a horizon to switch the distributions below.

Distributions after the event at

Return after 24h

N = 98 · Positive after 24h 43% (95% CI 34–53%)

Median
-2.2%
CI -5.2% … +0.7%
Trimmed mean
-2.8%
10% each side
Mean
-0.6%
σ 31.6%
Range
-72.3% … +144%
Return after 24h histogram98 samples in 15 bins from -72.3% to +144%. Tail bins: 4 above +56.6%.median-72.3%+144%0%-50%+50%
Return after 24h box plotMedian -2.2%, interquartile range -14.9% to +5.3%, whiskers -40.3% to +31.4%, 14 outliers (min -72.3%, max +144%).-40.3%+31.4%-2.2%

3 below -56.1% (min -72.3%) · 5 above +47.2% (max +144%)

p5
-47.9%
p10
-26.1%
p25
-14.9%
p50
-2.2%
p75
+5.3%
p90
+27.9%
p95
+43.2%

Max drawdown within 24h

N = 98

Median
-12.4%
CI -17.3% … -9.6%
Trimmed mean
-14.8%
10% each side
Mean
-17.6%
σ 17.0%
Range
-80.0% … 0.0%
Max drawdown within 24h histogram98 samples in 15 bins from -80.0% to 0.0%.median-80.0%0.0%-60%-40%-20%
Max drawdown within 24h box plotMedian -12.4%, interquartile range -24.3% to -4.7%, whiskers -48.3% to 0.0%, 7 outliers (min -80.0%, max 0.0%).-48.3%0.0%-12.4%

4 below -58.9% (min -80.0%)

p5
-56.7%
p10
-37.7%
p25
-24.3%
p50
-12.4%
p75
-4.7%
p90
-1.9%
p95
-0.8%

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.