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Historical analogs

Similar setups to $HOTBOT

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live
Similar setups
29
of 198 eligible snapshots
Median 24h
-14.8%
follow-through after the setup
Worst 24h drawdown
-52.3%
deepest intraday fall
Positive after 24h
21%
N = 29
ConfidenceConfidence: MEDIUM29 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 16:02 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 29 · Positive after 24h 21% (95% CI 10–38%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-14.8%
CI -27.9% … -7.8%
Trimmed mean
-16.2%
10% each side
Mean
-15.1%
σ 22.2%
Range
-46.7% … +41.0%
24h return after similar setups histogram29 samples in 9 bins from -46.7% to +41.0%.median-46.7%+41.0%0%-20%+20%
24h return after similar setups box plotMedian -14.8%, interquartile range -32.4% to -3.0%, whiskers -46.7% to +41.0%, 0 outliers (min -46.7%, max +41.0%).-46.7%+41.0%-14.8%
p5
-44.7%
p10
-43.1%
p25
-32.4%
p50
-14.8%
p75
-3.0%
p90
+16.5%
p95
+18.3%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 16:02 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum
11
Crowding
75
Early Quality
—
Narrative Velocity
26
Price change 1h
—
Volume acceleration
—
Liquidity
$251.8K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

  • $AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    41%
    24h return
    -44.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -49.7%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    27%
    24h return
    -33.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -34.4%
  • $AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    27%
    24h return
    -42.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -44.8%
  • $AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    26%
    24h return
    -46.7%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -52.3%
  • $PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    19%
    24h return
    -12.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -13.6%
  • $PRIORS2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    18%
    24h return
    +3.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -14.2%
  • $PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    17%
    24h return
    -14.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -15.0%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    17%
    24h return
    -32.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -33.7%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    17%
    24h return
    -34.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -34.2%
  • $UDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    17%
    24h return
    -7.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -10.3%
  • $AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
    Similarity
    17%
    24h return
    -45.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -46.6%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    15%
    24h return
    -32.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -34.1%
  • $SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    14%
    24h return
    -23.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -37.0%
  • $SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    14%
    24h return
    -26.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -39.7%
  • $PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
    Similarity
    11%
    24h return
    +41.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    0.0%
  • $PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
    Similarity
    9%
    24h return
    +18.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.2%
  • $PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    9%
    24h return
    -3.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -12.5%
  • $RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    9%
    24h return
    -8.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -18.2%
  • $RARI2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    8%
    24h return
    -5.7%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -12.7%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    7%
    24h return
    -28.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -32.2%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
    Similarity
    6%
    24h return
    -25.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -36.0%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
    Similarity
    6%
    24h return
    -27.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -35.0%
  • $BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    +15.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -19.4%
  • $PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    -14.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -15.4%
  • $BASECAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    +17.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.4%
  • $PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    4%
    24h return
    -13.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -14.9%
  • $PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    4%
    24h return
    -1.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -17.8%
  • $HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
    Similarity
    3%
    24h return
    -26.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -41.5%
  • $BINF2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    2%
    24h return
    +16.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -16.0%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

  • Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
  • Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 16:02 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $HOTBOT within ±24h are excluded.
  • Considered 6,649 resolved snapshots · 198 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
  • Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.