Historical analogs

Similar setups to $HOTDOG

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 2,263 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-3.2%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-59.7%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

48%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-12 05:44 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-11

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 48% (95% CI 33–63%)

Median: -3.2%; CI -11.2% … +15.8%
Trimmed mean: +3.0%; 10% each side
Mean: +4.7%; σ 36.1%
Range: -54.4% … +89.6%

p5: -48.3%
p10: -39.5%
p25: -14.8%
p50: -3.2%
p75: +28.0%
p90: +54.1%
p95: +63.0%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-12 05:44 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 43
Price change 1h: +0.5%
Volume acceleration: -87.4%
Liquidity: $63.3K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$ORBANCY2026-10-11 00:00 UTC	93%	-41.1%	-59.7%	+10.4%	— · — · — · 43
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-11 00:00 UTC	93%	+1.2%	-16.4%	+34.9%	— · — · — · 43
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	92%	+15.8%	-15.5%	+38.7%	— · — · — · 44
$BUL2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	91%	-39.3%	-41.1%	+13.4%	— · — · — · 43
$MALFOID2026-10-11 00:00 UTC	90%	+61.9%	-17.5%	+110%	— · — · — · 43
$FRANK2026-10-11 01:00 UTC	88%	+54.3%	0.0%	+72.7%	— · — · — · 44
$ORBANCY2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	88%	-36.9%	-55.6%	+21.9%	— · — · — · 41
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 00:00 UTC	88%	+31.2%	-1.9%	+31.6%	— · — · — · 43
$NORMIE2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	88%	-51.2%	-54.9%	+0.9%	— · — · — · 43
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-11 01:00 UTC	88%	-3.3%	-16.8%	+34.3%	— · — · — · 44
$MALFOID2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	87%	+54.1%	-22.4%	+54.1%	— · — · — · 42
$ORBANCY2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	87%	-38.8%	-56.6%	+19.1%	— · — · — · 41
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 01:00 UTC	87%	+53.4%	-1.9%	+53.4%	— · — · — · 44
$BINF2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	87%	+26.9%	-3.2%	+62.4%	— · — · — · 45
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	86%	-6.9%	-16.2%	+30.5%	— · — · — · 42
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	86%	-24.9%	-59.0%	+12.4%	— · — · — · 46
$MALFOID2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	86%	+89.6%	-19.6%	+96.3%	— · — · — · 43
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	86%	-12.5%	-14.3%	0.0%	11 · 84 · — · 43
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	85%	-12.5%	-14.3%	0.0%	10 · 84 · — · 44
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	85%	+10.4%	-3.7%	+15.6%	— · — · — · 45
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	85%	+32.4%	-1.0%	+32.8%	— · — · — · 43
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	85%	-11.1%	-12.5%	+29.4%	— · — · — · 46
$うさぎ2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	85%	+24.0%	-4.5%	+37.8%	— · — · — · 43
$NORMIE2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	85%	-54.4%	-54.4%	0.0%	— · — · — · 45
$うさぎ2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	85%	+39.2%	0.0%	+74.8%	— · — · — · 43
$BNBO2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	84%	+16.7%	-9.8%	+16.7%	— · — · — · 42
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	84%	-10.8%	-12.7%	0.0%	10 · 87 · — · 45
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	84%	-11.2%	-11.7%	+30.5%	— · — · — · 42
$うさぎ2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	84%	+24.4%	-4.2%	+38.3%	— · — · — · 44
$URMOM2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	84%	-20.1%	-28.6%	+24.0%	41 · 79 · — · 41
$URMOM2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	83%	-19.1%	-28.4%	+24.3%	3 · 79 · — · 44
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	83%	+1.6%	-7.4%	+31.8%	— · — · — · 46
$BNBO2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	83%	-3.1%	-13.6%	+1.7%	— · — · — · 45
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	83%	-13.4%	-13.4%	+28.0%	— · — · — · 45
$MALFOID2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	83%	+41.5%	-21.7%	+45.2%	— · — · — · 46
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	83%	+1.1%	-16.8%	+34.3%	— · — · — · 46
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	83%	-4.2%	-5.5%	+9.0%	29 · 87 · — · 46
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	83%	-48.2%	-56.5%	+0.8%	— · — · — · 46
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	82%	-9.9%	-54.0%	+26.2%	— · — · — · 47
$TM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	82%	+82.2%	-23.7%	+157%	3 · 86 · — · 39

$ORBANCY2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
-41.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-59.7%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
+1.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.4%
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
+15.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.5%
$BUL2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
-39.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.1%
$MALFOID2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Similarity
90%
24h return
+61.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.5%
$FRANK2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
+54.3%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$ORBANCY2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-36.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.6%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
+31.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.9%
$NORMIE2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-51.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-54.9%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-3.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.8%
$MALFOID2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
+54.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.4%
$ORBANCY2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-38.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-56.6%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
+53.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.9%
$BINF2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
+26.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.2%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-6.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.2%
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-24.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-59.0%
$MALFOID2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
+89.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.6%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-12.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.3%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-12.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.3%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
+10.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.7%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
+32.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.0%
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-11.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.5%
$うさぎ2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
+24.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.5%
$NORMIE2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-54.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-54.4%
$うさぎ2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
+39.2%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$BNBO2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
+16.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.8%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-10.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.7%
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-11.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.7%
$うさぎ2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
+24.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.2%
$URMOM2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-20.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.6%
$URMOM2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-19.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.4%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+1.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.4%
$BNBO2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-3.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.6%
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-13.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.4%
$MALFOID2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+41.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.7%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+1.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.8%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-4.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.5%
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-48.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-56.5%
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-9.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-54.0%
$TM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
+82.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.7%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-12 05:44 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $HOTDOG within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 9,339 resolved snapshots · 2,263 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.