Historical analogs

Similar setups to $SWOLF

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 303 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-22.6%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-73.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

33%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 17:44 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 33% (95% CI 20–48%)

Median: -22.6%; CI -31.2% … -1.5%
Trimmed mean: -10.6%; 10% each side
Mean: +2.8%; σ 65.6%
Range: -70.5% … +205%

5 above +45.9% (max +205%)

p5: -56.5%
p10: -37.8%
p25: -32.9%
p50: -22.6%
p75: +5.7%
p90: +139%
p95: +159%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 17:44 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 3
Crowding: 56
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: —
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: —
Liquidity: $182.7K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 3 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	84%	+138%	-20.0%	+188%	5 · 56 · — · 50
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	84%	+161%	-22.1%	+180%	5 · 56 · — · 46
$BORDR2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	84%	-31.5%	-41.6%	+6.5%	7 · 54 · — · —
$BORDR2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	82%	-32.4%	-33.3%	+27.5%	8 · 55 · — · —
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	80%	+0.7%	-6.3%	+2.2%	5 · 56 · — · 52
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	80%	-1.5%	-8.3%	0.0%	5 · 56 · — · 50
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	80%	-0.4%	-6.6%	+1.2%	5 · 56 · — · 47
$BANKROLL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	80%	+24.9%	0.0%	+28.0%	3 · 62 · — · —
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	80%	+2.9%	-4.7%	+3.0%	5 · 56 · — · 50
$DARK2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	78%	-30.9%	-32.2%	+1.2%	5 · 56 · — · 23
$BORDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	75%	-8.8%	-26.7%	+40.8%	8 · 59 · — · —
$HOOKED2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	74%	-30.4%	-30.9%	0.0%	5 · 56 · — · —
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	72%	+205%	-7.4%	+274%	7 · 49 · — · 58
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	72%	+2.0%	-5.5%	+2.1%	5 · 62 · — · 42
$PQC2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	70%	-70.5%	-73.3%	+4.0%	10 · 58 · — · 52
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	70%	+159%	-21.5%	+217%	7 · 49 · — · 58
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	70%	+151%	-24.0%	+207%	7 · 49 · — · 50
$PQC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	69%	-61.0%	-69.2%	0.0%	9 · 58 · — · 52
$PQC2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	69%	-56.3%	-64.8%	+2.0%	9 · 58 · — · 48
$PQC2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	69%	-35.2%	-61.6%	+0.6%	9 · 58 · — · 48
$PQC2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	69%	-32.8%	-55.2%	+14.5%	9 · 58 · — · 51
$DARK2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	68%	-32.4%	-33.7%	+3.8%	6 · 50 · — · 20
$DARK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	68%	-33.1%	-34.4%	+0.6%	6 · 50 · — · 24
$BORDR2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	66%	-14.3%	-31.1%	+32.3%	8 · 64 · — · —
$SAPLING2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	65%	-18.4%	-19.4%	+25.4%	8 · 56 · — · 46
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	65%	-26.8%	-41.5%	+14.9%	6 · 63 · — · 39
$DARK2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	65%	-34.2%	-34.2%	+1.3%	6 · 50 · — · 20
$BORDR2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	64%	-5.3%	-23.9%	+46.2%	8 · 64 · — · —
$HOOKED2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	63%	-37.1%	-37.5%	0.0%	6 · 50 · — · —
$HOOKED2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	63%	-38.4%	-38.8%	+4.1%	6 · 50 · — · —
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	63%	-36.2%	-49.1%	+8.5%	8 · 63 · — · 40
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	63%	+15.9%	-19.4%	+36.5%	3 · 62 · — · 36
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	62%	+14.8%	-4.1%	+46.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	62%	+14.2%	0.0%	+47.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	62%	-6.9%	-9.1%	+39.0%	9 · 61 · — · 46
$PQC2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	61%	-37.8%	-55.9%	+11.7%	9 · 58 · — · 51
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	61%	+23.3%	-14.3%	+45.2%	3 · 62 · — · 43
$CRAWL2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	58%	-28.5%	-37.7%	+25.4%	8 · 49 · — · 47
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	58%	-29.9%	-42.6%	+15.4%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	58%	-29.3%	-38.9%	+22.9%	8 · 49 · — · 43

$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
+138%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.0%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
+161%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.1%
$BORDR2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-31.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.6%
$BORDR2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-32.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-33.3%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
+0.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.3%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
-1.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.3%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
-0.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.6%
$BANKROLL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
+24.9%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
+2.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.7%
$DARK2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-30.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.2%
$BORDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-8.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.7%
$HOOKED2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
-30.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.9%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
+205%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.4%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
+2.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.5%
$PQC2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
70%
24h return
-70.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-73.3%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
70%
24h return
+159%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.5%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
70%
24h return
+151%
Max drawdown 24h
-24.0%
$PQC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-61.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-69.2%
$PQC2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-56.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-64.8%
$PQC2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-35.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-61.6%
$PQC2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-32.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.2%
$DARK2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
-32.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-33.7%
$DARK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
-33.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-34.4%
$BORDR2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
-14.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-31.1%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-18.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.4%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.5%
$DARK2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-34.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-34.2%
$BORDR2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-5.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.9%
$HOOKED2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-37.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.5%
$HOOKED2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-38.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.8%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.1%
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
+15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.4%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
62%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.1%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
62%
24h return
+14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
62%
24h return
-6.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.1%
$PQC2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-37.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.9%
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
+23.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.3%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
-28.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.7%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
-29.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.6%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
-29.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.9%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 17:44 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $SWOLF within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,848 resolved snapshots · 303 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.