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Historical analogs

Similar setups to $URMOM

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live
Similar setups
5
of 198 eligible snapshots
Median 24h
-32.4%
follow-through after the setup
Worst 24h drawdown
-34.4%
deepest intraday fall
Positive after 24h
0%
N = 5
ConfidenceConfidence: LOW5 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 16:50 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 5 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–43%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-32.4%
CI -34.2% … -12.0%
Trimmed mean
-25.3%
10% each side
Mean
-25.3%
σ 10.9%
Range
-34.2% … -12.0%
24h return after similar setups histogram5 samples in 4 bins from -34.2% to -12.0%.median-34.2%-12.0%-30%-25%-20%-15%
24h return after similar setups box plotMedian -32.4%, interquartile range -33.1% to -14.8%, whiskers -34.2% to -12.0%, 0 outliers (min -34.2%, max -12.0%).-34.2%-12.0%-32.4%
p5
-34.0%
p10
-33.8%
p25
-33.1%
p50
-32.4%
p75
-14.8%
p90
-13.1%
p95
-12.5%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 16:50 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum
4
Crowding
70
Early Quality
—
Narrative Velocity
22
Price change 1h
—
Volume acceleration
—
Liquidity
$76.8K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

  • $PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    10%
    24h return
    -12.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -13.6%
  • $PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    8%
    24h return
    -14.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -15.0%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    8%
    24h return
    -32.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -33.7%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    8%
    24h return
    -33.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -34.4%
  • $DARK2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    -34.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -34.2%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

  • Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
  • Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 16:50 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $URMOM within ±24h are excluded.
  • Considered 6,649 resolved snapshots · 198 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
  • Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.