Historical analogs

Similar setups to $SECRETFROG

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 1,962 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-19.7%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-84.5%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

18%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-12 03:51 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-11

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 18% (95% CI 9–32%)

Median: -19.7%; CI -41.3% … -8.2%
Trimmed mean: -25.2%; 10% each side
Mean: -24.7%; σ 31.7%
Range: -84.1% … +76.3%

1 above +39.9% (max +76.3%)

p5: -69.5%
p10: -64.2%
p25: -47.9%
p50: -19.7%
p75: -3.7%
p90: +4.2%
p95: +15.8%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-12 03:51 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 71
Price change 1h: +12.8%
Volume acceleration: -31.5%
Liquidity: $118.5K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$SAFU2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	81%	-46.6%	-66.5%	+39.6%	2 · 81 · — · 68
$BULLISH2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	75%	+76.3%	-18.0%	+185%	— · — · — · 66
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	72%	-39.2%	-45.5%	+81.1%	— · — · — · 68
$ALTAI2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	71%	-64.2%	-76.5%	+42.2%	3 · 65 · — · 66
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	69%	+15.8%	-65.2%	+15.8%	— · — · — · 64
$OMNI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	67%	-42.8%	-55.7%	+6.2%	3 · 88 · — · 65
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	66%	-57.0%	-65.8%	+13.5%	— · — · — · 65
$KLN2026-10-11 01:00 UTC	66%	-39.8%	-43.9%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 64
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	66%	-3.8%	-9.8%	+9.0%	2 · 78 · — · 66
$ALTAI2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	63%	-78.1%	-83.5%	+4.0%	41 · 65 · — · 63
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	61%	-13.3%	-30.4%	+5.4%	— · — · — · 63
$ALTAI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	60%	-69.1%	-77.8%	+18.0%	3 · 65 · — · 68
$JOBY2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	59%	-10.6%	-20.9%	+3.7%	— · — · — · 62
$MADE2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	58%	-3.4%	-10.8%	+2.5%	— · — · — · 64
$ALTAI2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	57%	-84.1%	-84.5%	+15.1%	3 · 56 · — · 66
$MADE2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	57%	-4.7%	-8.6%	+5.0%	— · — · — · 65
$OMNI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	57%	-52.6%	-57.1%	0.0%	42 · 90 · — · 65
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	56%	-11.5%	-28.9%	+1.0%	— · — · — · 66
$KLN2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	56%	-43.7%	-44.7%	0.0%	— · — · — · 66
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	56%	-55.2%	-63.4%	+21.6%	— · — · — · 62
$MALFOID2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	55%	+17.5%	-20.5%	+22.4%	— · — · — · 66
$SAFU2026-10-11 01:00 UTC	54%	-64.3%	-72.1%	+16.1%	2 · 81 · — · 64
$MADE2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	54%	-8.2%	-12.1%	+3.0%	— · — · — · 68
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	53%	-38.8%	-45.5%	0.0%	3 · 78 · — · 62
$GTA2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	51%	-15.7%	-19.1%	+18.2%	— · — · — · 66
$GTA2026-10-11 01:00 UTC	51%	-17.2%	-18.3%	+17.3%	— · — · — · 64
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	51%	-22.2%	-30.9%	+1.8%	— · — · — · 64
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	51%	+4.9%	0.0%	+5.7%	— · — · — · 68
$MADE2026-10-11 01:00 UTC	50%	-6.0%	-8.3%	+5.3%	— · — · — · 64
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	50%	-51.6%	-62.5%	+24.7%	— · — · — · 65
$MICHI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	50%	+4.1%	-2.0%	+5.3%	— · — · — · 68
$MICHI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	50%	+2.2%	-2.7%	+3.4%	— · — · — · 65
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	49%	-59.6%	-64.3%	+18.5%	— · — · — · 63
$MADE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	49%	-2.1%	-9.6%	+3.9%	— · — · — · 66
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	49%	-26.8%	-31.2%	+36.6%	3 · 78 · — · 64
$MICHI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	48%	+4.1%	-1.3%	+4.9%	— · — · — · 65
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	48%	-25.9%	-30.3%	+38.2%	3 · 78 · — · 66
$MADE2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	48%	-7.3%	-7.3%	+7.8%	— · — · — · 66
$OMNI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	48%	-45.8%	-47.9%	+25.1%	3 · 88 · — · 66
$MICHI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	47%	-1.5%	-1.5%	+2.6%	— · — · — · 66

$SAFU2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-46.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-66.5%
$BULLISH2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
+76.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.0%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
-39.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-45.5%
$ALTAI2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
-64.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-76.5%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
+15.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-65.2%
$OMNI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
67%
24h return
-42.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.7%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
-57.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-65.8%
$KLN2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
-39.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-43.9%
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
-3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.8%
$ALTAI2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-78.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-83.5%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-13.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.4%
$ALTAI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
-69.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-77.8%
$JOBY2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
59%
24h return
-10.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.9%
$MADE2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
-3.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.8%
$ALTAI2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
-84.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-84.5%
$MADE2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
-4.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.6%
$OMNI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
-52.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-57.1%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
-11.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.9%
$KLN2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
-43.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.7%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
-55.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-63.4%
$MALFOID2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
55%
24h return
+17.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.5%
$SAFU2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Similarity
54%
24h return
-64.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-72.1%
$MADE2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
54%
24h return
-8.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.1%
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
53%
24h return
-38.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-45.5%
$GTA2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
51%
24h return
-15.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.1%
$GTA2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Similarity
51%
24h return
-17.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.3%
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
51%
24h return
-22.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.9%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
51%
24h return
+4.9%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$MADE2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
-6.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.3%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
-51.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-62.5%
$MICHI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
+4.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.0%
$MICHI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
+2.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.7%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-59.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-64.3%
$MADE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-2.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.6%
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-31.2%
$MICHI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
+4.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.3%
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
-25.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.3%
$MADE2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
-7.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.3%
$OMNI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
-45.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-47.9%
$MICHI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
47%
24h return
-1.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.5%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-12 03:51 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $SECRETFROG within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 8,910 resolved snapshots · 1,962 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.