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Historical analogs

Similar setups to $API

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live
Similar setups
11
of 1,378 eligible snapshots
Median 24h
-42.2%
follow-through after the setup
Worst 24h drawdown
-83.5%
deepest intraday fall
Positive after 24h
27%
N = 11
ConfidenceConfidence: MEDIUM11 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-12 00:00 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 11 · Positive after 24h 27% (95% CI 10–57%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-42.2%
CI -51.8% … +15.8%
Trimmed mean
-24.0%
10% each side
Mean
-13.5%
σ 68.4%
Range
-78.1% … +145%
24h return after similar setups histogram11 samples in 5 bins from -78.1% to +145%.median-78.1%+145%0%-50%+50%+100%
24h return after similar setups box plotMedian -42.2%, interquartile range -47.8% to +1.2%, whiskers -78.1% to +15.8%, 2 outliers (min -78.1%, max +145%).-78.1%+15.8%-42.2%

2 above +36.4% (max +145%)

p5
-77.1%
p10
-76.2%
p25
-47.8%
p50
-42.2%
p75
+1.2%
p90
+76.3%
p95
+111%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-12 00:00 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum
—
Crowding
—
Early Quality
—
Narrative Velocity
74
Price change 1h
+27.7%
Volume acceleration
-16.1%
Liquidity
$63.8K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

  • $HEEHAW2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
    Similarity
    43%
    24h return
    -37.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -42.4%
  • $SAFU2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
    Similarity
    34%
    24h return
    -76.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -76.2%
  • $OMNI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
    Similarity
    25%
    24h return
    -42.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -55.7%
  • $BULLISH2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
    Similarity
    21%
    24h return
    +76.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -18.0%
  • $TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
    Similarity
    19%
    24h return
    +15.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -65.2%
  • $KLN2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
    Similarity
    17%
    24h return
    -43.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -48.4%
  • $PQC2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
    Similarity
    16%
    24h return
    -42.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -59.0%
  • $KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    12%
    24h return
    -13.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -30.4%
  • $SAFU2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
    Similarity
    8%
    24h return
    -51.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -60.2%
  • $CLAUDIA2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
    Similarity
    6%
    24h return
    +145%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -17.1%
  • $ALTAI2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
    Similarity
    1%
    24h return
    -78.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -83.5%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

  • Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
  • Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-12 00:00 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $API within ±24h are excluded.
  • Considered 8,071 resolved snapshots · 1,378 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
  • Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.