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Historical analogs

Similar setups to $CATE

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live
Similar setups
4
of 160 eligible snapshots
Median 24h
-3.4%
follow-through after the setup
Worst 24h drawdown
-5.5%
deepest intraday fall
Positive after 24h
25%
N = 4
ConfidenceConfidence: LOW4 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 15:51 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 4 · Positive after 24h 25% (95% CI 5–70%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-3.4%
CI -5.3% … +1.5%
Trimmed mean
-2.7%
10% each side
Mean
-2.7%
σ 3.2%
Range
-5.3% … +1.5%
24h return after similar setups histogram4 samples in 3 bins from -5.3% to +1.5%.median-5.3%+1.5%0%-4%-2%
24h return after similar setups box plotMedian -3.4%, interquartile range -5.1% to -1.0%, whiskers -5.3% to +1.5%, 0 outliers (min -5.3%, max +1.5%).-5.3%+1.5%-3.4%
p5
-5.3%
p10
-5.2%
p25
-5.1%
p50
-3.4%
p75
-1.0%
p90
+0.5%
p95
+1.0%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 15:51 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum
18
Crowding
23
Early Quality
—
Narrative Velocity
32
Price change 1h
—
Volume acceleration
—
Liquidity
$2.66M

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

  • $CATE2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    34%
    24h return
    -5.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -5.3%
  • $CATE2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    23%
    24h return
    -1.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.2%
  • $CATE2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    20%
    24h return
    -5.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -5.5%
  • $CATE2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
    Similarity
    13%
    24h return
    +1.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.1%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

  • Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
  • Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 15:51 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $CATE within ±24h are excluded.
  • Considered 6,452 resolved snapshots · 160 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
  • Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.