Historical analogs

Similar setups to $FACTORY

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 1,086 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-9.9%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-69.2%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

35%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 21:13 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 35% (95% CI 22–50%)

Median: -9.9%; CI -24.3% … +1.8%
Trimmed mean: -8.7%; 10% each side
Mean: -6.2%; σ 32.9%
Range: -61.0% … +90.6%

p5: -43.6%
p10: -38.9%
p25: -32.9%
p50: -9.9%
p75: +16.4%
p90: +32.2%
p95: +36.6%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 21:13 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 53
Price change 1h: -10.8%
Volume acceleration: +5.6%
Liquidity: $20.5K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$BUL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	64%	-8.2%	-26.6%	+33.9%	— · — · — · 54
$BUL2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	54%	+13.1%	-9.6%	+64.9%	— · — · — · 56
$OMNI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	52%	-38.7%	-43.2%	+27.7%	— · — · — · 53
$SIB2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	52%	-40.3%	-56.4%	+19.4%	— · — · — · 50
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	51%	-35.6%	-55.1%	+23.2%	— · — · — · 56
$TIKTOK2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	48%	+20.9%	-30.5%	+41.2%	— · — · — · 44
$PACK2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	46%	-6.5%	-8.2%	+8.1%	— · — · — · 46
$OMNI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	46%	-43.2%	-48.5%	+15.9%	— · — · — · 57
$MALFOID2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	46%	+15.9%	-21.5%	+20.8%	— · — · — · 56
$FRANK2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	46%	+31.2%	-29.9%	+48.5%	— · — · — · 46
$STONKINU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	45%	-26.1%	-43.8%	+16.6%	6 · 81 · — · 49
$FRANK2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	43%	+32.5%	-33.7%	+40.5%	— · — · — · 45
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	42%	-51.2%	-57.7%	+16.1%	— · — · — · 52
$BUL2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	42%	-20.4%	-36.3%	+16.1%	— · — · — · 53
$ANIMAL2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	41%	-19.3%	-19.3%	+35.3%	— · — · — · 45
$SIB2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	41%	+11.2%	-15.2%	+124%	— · — · — · 47
$BUL2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	40%	-32.8%	-32.8%	+29.4%	— · — · — · 45
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	40%	+26.2%	-62.0%	+26.2%	— · — · — · 56
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	40%	-22.6%	-53.2%	+28.4%	— · — · — · 54
$SIB2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	38%	-36.7%	-53.8%	+2.8%	— · — · — · 46
$SIB2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	38%	+90.6%	-21.0%	+109%	— · — · — · 46
$STONKINU2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	38%	-18.2%	-48.5%	+6.7%	4 · 79 · — · 51
$SIB2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	38%	-32.7%	-45.9%	+9.1%	— · — · — · 47
$ANIMAL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	38%	-16.8%	-38.3%	+3.3%	— · — · — · 44
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	38%	-2.1%	-21.4%	+20.8%	— · — · — · 56
$ANIMAL2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	37%	+5.7%	-21.5%	+28.7%	— · — · — · 46
$PACK2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	37%	-7.5%	-11.1%	0.0%	— · — · — · 44
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	36%	-4.7%	-4.9%	+8.8%	44 · 87 · — · 45
$OMNI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	35%	-33.0%	-40.9%	+32.9%	— · — · — · 53
$FRANK2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	33%	-4.5%	-38.1%	+31.2%	— · — · — · 45
$PQC2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	32%	-32.8%	-55.2%	+14.5%	9 · 58 · — · 51
$STONKINU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	31%	-33.5%	-49.4%	+4.9%	6 · 81 · — · 48
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	31%	+29.7%	-9.9%	+52.7%	3 · 62 · — · 46
$SIB2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	31%	-38.7%	-39.2%	+60.6%	— · — · — · 51
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	31%	+32.1%	-7.1%	+32.1%	— · — · — · 45
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	30%	+17.6%	-5.6%	+60.0%	3 · 62 · — · 45
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	30%	+35.0%	0.0%	+61.6%	— · — · — · 46
$PQC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	30%	-61.0%	-69.2%	0.0%	9 · 58 · — · 52
$PACK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	30%	-11.6%	-15.1%	+1.4%	— · — · — · 43
$SIB2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	30%	+67.2%	-30.7%	+83.1%	— · — · — · 47

$BUL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-8.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.6%
$BUL2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
54%
24h return
+13.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.6%
$OMNI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-38.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-43.2%
$SIB2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-40.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-56.4%
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
51%
24h return
-35.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.1%
$TIKTOK2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
+20.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.5%
$PACK2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
-6.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.2%
$OMNI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
-43.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.5%
$MALFOID2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
+15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.5%
$FRANK2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
+31.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-29.9%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
45%
24h return
-26.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-43.8%
$FRANK2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
+32.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-33.7%
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-51.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-57.7%
$BUL2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-20.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-36.3%
$ANIMAL2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
-19.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.3%
$SIB2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+11.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.2%
$BUL2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-32.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.8%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
+26.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-62.0%
$ORBANCY2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-22.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-53.2%
$SIB2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-36.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-53.8%
$SIB2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
+90.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.0%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-18.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.5%
$SIB2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-32.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-45.9%
$ANIMAL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-16.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.3%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-2.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.4%
$ANIMAL2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
+5.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.5%
$PACK2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-7.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.1%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
-4.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.9%
$OMNI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
-33.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.9%
$FRANK2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
-4.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.1%
$PQC2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
-32.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.2%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
-33.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.4%
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+29.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.9%
$SIB2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
-38.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.2%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+32.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.1%
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
+17.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.6%
$CHIIKAWA2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
+35.0%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$PQC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-61.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-69.2%
$PACK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-11.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.1%
$SIB2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
+67.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.7%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 21:13 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $FACTORY within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 7,656 resolved snapshots · 1,086 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.