Historical analogs

Similar setups to $ASTEROID

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 1,086 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

+2.1%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-62.0%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

53%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 21:27 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 53% (95% CI 37–67%)

Median: +2.1%; CI -8.1% … +9.3%
Trimmed mean: +1.0%; 10% each side
Mean: +0.9%; σ 17.7%
Range: -34.4% … +35.4%

p5: -29.2%
p10: -23.2%
p25: -10.3%
p50: +2.1%
p75: +14.1%
p90: +23.7%
p95: +27.8%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 21:27 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 53
Price change 1h: -3.8%
Volume acceleration: +49.9%
Liquidity: $227.2K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$PRISM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	80%	-8.3%	-14.0%	+7.3%	3 · 88 · — · 53
$BONER2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	76%	+6.6%	-5.7%	+9.1%	5 · 56 · — · 52
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	75%	-3.2%	-20.1%	+11.4%	6 · 75 · — · 49
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	75%	-6.8%	-23.1%	+7.2%	6 · 75 · — · 48
$OPTIMUS2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	73%	-13.4%	-13.4%	0.0%	— · — · — · 50
$BONER2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	72%	+10.4%	-4.6%	+10.4%	5 · 39 · — · 51
$OTC2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	71%	-10.1%	-12.1%	+6.0%	— · — · — · 53
$1F9162026-10-10 20:00 UTC	70%	+4.1%	-18.7%	+9.1%	— · — · — · 54
$WORM2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	70%	+6.3%	-3.0%	+14.7%	— · — · — · 49
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	69%	+2.9%	-4.7%	+3.0%	5 · 56 · — · 50
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	68%	+9.5%	-4.2%	+10.9%	3 · 62 · — · 52
$旺柴2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	67%	+9.3%	-6.8%	+24.4%	10 · 58 · — · 55
$WORM2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	66%	+14.8%	-5.6%	+23.9%	— · — · — · 54
$OPTIMUS2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	65%	-10.8%	-10.9%	0.0%	— · — · — · 47
$GENIE2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	64%	-23.1%	-23.1%	+4.3%	— · — · — · 56
$1F9162026-10-10 21:00 UTC	63%	+35.4%	-15.7%	+44.6%	— · — · — · 47
$GENIE2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	63%	-29.2%	-29.2%	+2.2%	— · — · — · 54
$INU2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	63%	+23.5%	-6.1%	+25.9%	3 · 67 · — · 50
$WORM2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	62%	+27.5%	-4.4%	+27.5%	— · — · — · 56
$ALLINU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	61%	+14.4%	-9.6%	+23.9%	— · — · — · 54
$OPTIMUS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	61%	-9.6%	-9.6%	0.0%	— · — · — · 47
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	61%	+10.3%	-2.5%	+10.3%	41 · 67 · — · 60
$STONKINU2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	61%	-18.2%	-48.5%	+6.7%	4 · 79 · — · 51
$HMM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	61%	-14.3%	-15.6%	+2.0%	— · — · — · 56
$SC2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	60%	+1.4%	-0.9%	+2.5%	3 · 99 · — · 46
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	60%	-20.4%	-23.5%	+7.8%	66 · 55 · — · 48
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	60%	-0.4%	-6.6%	+1.2%	5 · 56 · — · 47
$SNDK2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	60%	+17.9%	-9.9%	+34.6%	— · — · — · 46
$旺柴2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	59%	+8.9%	-7.2%	+23.8%	30 · 58 · — · 53
$CORE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	59%	-4.9%	-7.4%	+2.1%	— · — · — · 46
$CRAWL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	59%	-34.4%	-40.6%	+10.9%	44 · 53 · — · 52
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	59%	-7.9%	-11.6%	+3.7%	— · — · — · 46
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	58%	-9.9%	-22.1%	+4.8%	5 · 64 · — · 46
$AI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	58%	+18.3%	-1.7%	+19.6%	26 · 48 · — · 54
$AI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	58%	+20.4%	-0.9%	+23.6%	9 · 48 · — · 54
$GENIE2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	58%	-29.6%	-32.2%	+2.7%	— · — · — · 47
$NINJACAT2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	57%	+31.7%	-27.2%	+40.6%	— · — · — · 46
$BNBCAT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	57%	+14.0%	-12.7%	+15.9%	— · — · — · 45
$PURR2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	56%	-24.2%	-25.5%	+2.4%	— · — · — · 45
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	56%	+26.2%	-62.0%	+26.2%	— · — · — · 56

$PRISM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
-8.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.0%
$BONER2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
+6.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.7%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-3.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.1%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-6.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.1%
$OPTIMUS2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
73%
24h return
-13.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.4%
$BONER2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
+10.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.6%
$OTC2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
-10.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.1%
$1F9162026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
70%
24h return
+4.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.7%
$WORM2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
70%
24h return
+6.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.0%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
+2.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.7%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
+9.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.2%
$旺柴2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
67%
24h return
+9.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.8%
$WORM2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.6%
$OPTIMUS2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-10.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.9%
$GENIE2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-23.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.1%
$1F9162026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
+35.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.7%
$GENIE2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-29.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-29.2%
$INU2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
+23.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.1%
$WORM2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
62%
24h return
+27.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.4%
$ALLINU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
+14.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.6%
$OPTIMUS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-9.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.6%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
+10.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.5%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-18.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.5%
$HMM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-14.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.6%
$SC2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
+1.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.9%
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
-20.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.5%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
-0.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.6%
$SNDK2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
+17.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.9%
$旺柴2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
59%
24h return
+8.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.2%
$CORE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
59%
24h return
-4.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.4%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
59%
24h return
-34.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.6%
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
59%
24h return
-7.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.6%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
-9.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.1%
$AI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
+18.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.7%
$AI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
+20.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.9%
$GENIE2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
-29.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.2%
$NINJACAT2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
+31.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-27.2%
$BNBCAT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
+14.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.7%
$PURR2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
-24.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.5%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
+26.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-62.0%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 21:27 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $ASTEROID within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 7,656 resolved snapshots · 1,086 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.