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Historical analogs

Similar setups to $PONS

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live
Similar setups
27
of 802 eligible snapshots
Median 24h
-1.5%
follow-through after the setup
Worst 24h drawdown
-28.0%
deepest intraday fall
Positive after 24h
44%
N = 27
ConfidenceConfidence: MEDIUM27 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 19:52 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 27 · Positive after 24h 44% (95% CI 28–63%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-1.5%
CI -6.0% … +1.8%
Trimmed mean
-3.4%
10% each side
Mean
-3.4%
σ 11.8%
Range
-25.6% … +18.2%
24h return after similar setups histogram27 samples in 8 bins from -25.6% to +18.2%.median-25.6%+18.2%0%-20%-10%+10%
24h return after similar setups box plotMedian -1.5%, interquartile range -10.1% to +2.6%, whiskers -25.6% to +18.2%, 0 outliers (min -25.6%, max +18.2%).-25.6%+18.2%-1.5%
p5
-22.5%
p10
-21.2%
p25
-10.1%
p50
-1.5%
p75
+2.6%
p90
+10.5%
p95
+16.4%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 19:52 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum
—
Crowding
—
Early Quality
—
Narrative Velocity
52
Price change 1h
-2.9%
Volume acceleration
+229%
Liquidity
$3.21M

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

  • $SI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
    Similarity
    33%
    24h return
    +18.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.8%
  • $PENGU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    29%
    24h return
    -3.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -3.0%
  • $IMD2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
    Similarity
    29%
    24h return
    +7.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -11.6%
  • $USELESS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    27%
    24h return
    +2.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.1%
  • $MEME2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
    Similarity
    25%
    24h return
    -3.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -11.2%
  • $牛来2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    22%
    24h return
    -4.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -5.6%
  • $ORBIO2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    21%
    24h return
    -15.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -15.2%
  • $SI2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
    Similarity
    20%
    24h return
    +1.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.4%
  • $GENIE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
    Similarity
    15%
    24h return
    -21.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -21.2%
  • $USELESS2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    14%
    24h return
    +1.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.5%
  • $ZCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    14%
    24h return
    -6.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -8.4%
  • $SI2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    13%
    24h return
    +16.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.9%
  • $ORBIO2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
    Similarity
    11%
    24h return
    -18.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -18.1%
  • $ORBIO2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    10%
    24h return
    -25.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -28.0%
  • $KITTY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    7%
    24h return
    -1.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -3.0%
  • $GENIE2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
    Similarity
    6%
    24h return
    -23.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -23.1%
  • $CARDS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    +15.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.1%
  • $MARSCOIN2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    -1.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -3.8%
  • $FLORK2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    +1.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -4.2%
  • $USELESS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
    Similarity
    5%
    24h return
    +1.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.1%
  • $SCHIFFY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    3%
    24h return
    -21.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -28.0%
  • $MUSHU2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
    Similarity
    3%
    24h return
    +3.7%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.8%
  • $KITTY2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
    Similarity
    3%
    24h return
    -9.7%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -12.6%
  • $FLORK2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
    Similarity
    3%
    24h return
    -5.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -10.2%
  • $CASHCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
    Similarity
    1%
    24h return
    +2.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -4.5%
  • $HMM2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
    Similarity
    1%
    24h return
    -10.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -11.9%
  • $OTC2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    1%
    24h return
    +4.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -6.9%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

  • Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
  • Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 19:52 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $PONS within ±24h are excluded.
  • Considered 7,250 resolved snapshots · 802 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
  • Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.