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Historical analogs

Similar setups to $VEIL

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live
Similar setups
5
of 32 eligible snapshots
Median 24h
-19.5%
follow-through after the setup
Worst 24h drawdown
-97.4%
deepest intraday fall
Positive after 24h
0%
N = 5
ConfidenceConfidence: LOW5 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-13 01:07 UTC · 2026-10-11 → 2026-10-12

24h return after similar setups

N = 5 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–43%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-19.5%
CI -96.9% … -14.6%
Trimmed mean
-33.7%
10% each side
Mean
-33.7%
σ 35.4%
Range
-96.9% … -14.6%
24h return after similar setups histogram5 samples in 4 bins from -96.9% to -14.6%. Tail bins: 1 below -27.1%.median-96.9%-14.6%-27.1%-25%-20%
24h return after similar setups box plotMedian -19.5%, interquartile range -20.5% to -16.9%, whiskers -20.5% to -14.6%, 1 outliers (min -96.9%, max -14.6%).-20.5%-14.6%-19.5%

1 below -21.8% (min -96.9%)

p5
-81.6%
p10
-66.3%
p25
-20.5%
p50
-19.5%
p75
-16.9%
p90
-15.5%
p95
-15.1%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-13 01:07 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum
2
Crowding
62
Early Quality
60
Narrative Velocity
69
Price change 1h
+2.2%
Volume acceleration
-30.8%
Liquidity
$123.4K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 7 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

  • $尤栗2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
    Similarity
    54%
    24h return
    -96.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -97.4%
  • $AI2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
    Similarity
    19%
    24h return
    -16.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -21.6%
  • $AI2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
    Similarity
    17%
    24h return
    -19.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -22.8%
  • $AI2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
    Similarity
    14%
    24h return
    -14.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -21.4%
  • $AI2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
    Similarity
    0%
    24h return
    -20.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -21.3%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

  • Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
  • Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-13 01:07 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $VEIL within ±24h are excluded.
  • Considered 12,990 resolved snapshots · 32 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
  • Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.