Historical analogs

Similar setups to $PAID

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 1,086 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-10.5%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-48.5%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

28%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 21:11 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 28% (95% CI 16–43%)

Median: -10.5%; CI -18.9% … -5.2%
Trimmed mean: -10.7%; 10% each side
Mean: -11.6%; σ 16.7%
Range: -48.0% … +14.8%

p5: -41.4%
p10: -34.8%
p25: -22.5%
p50: -10.5%
p75: +0.5%
p90: +10.3%
p95: +12.1%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 21:11 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 53
Price change 1h: -2.7%
Volume acceleration: -74.7%
Liquidity: $436.2K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$INU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	90%	-9.9%	-13.6%	+4.0%	4 · 63 · — · 52
$PAID2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	88%	+11.8%	-6.1%	+21.2%	— · — · — · 53
$OTC2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	88%	-14.9%	-15.3%	+0.3%	— · — · — · 53
$MONITOR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	87%	-24.3%	-27.8%	+4.9%	3 · 81 · — · 54
$CRAWL2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	87%	-44.9%	-47.7%	+3.5%	7 · 45 · — · 53
$PAID2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	86%	+10.1%	-6.1%	+22.4%	— · — · — · 56
$CRAWL2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	86%	-48.0%	-48.5%	+2.8%	8 · 50 · — · 53
$AGENCY2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	85%	-38.1%	-40.9%	+8.5%	27 · 70 · — · 51
$TENDIES2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	85%	+8.2%	-0.8%	+10.5%	2 · 62 · — · 51
$1F9162026-10-10 17:00 UTC	84%	-23.0%	-23.1%	+3.2%	— · — · — · 53
$VEX2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	84%	-6.4%	-6.5%	+1.0%	— · — · — · 53
$TENDIES2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	83%	+8.0%	-1.0%	+10.2%	2 · 62 · — · 52
$1F9162026-10-10 16:00 UTC	83%	-22.3%	-22.4%	+4.1%	— · — · — · 52
$AGENCY2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	83%	-41.2%	-42.8%	+5.1%	42 · 75 · — · 50
$PAID2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	83%	+13.7%	-3.3%	+26.1%	— · — · — · 56
$INU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	83%	-11.1%	-14.7%	+2.6%	4 · 63 · — · 51
$INU2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	83%	+14.8%	-14.0%	+15.3%	3 · 67 · — · 50
$PRISM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	82%	-5.9%	-11.7%	+10.2%	3 · 88 · — · 54
$BUN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	82%	-5.2%	-6.3%	+3.2%	— · — · — · 53
$STRATEGY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	82%	-12.9%	-14.4%	0.0%	— · — · — · 54
$MEME2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	81%	-4.9%	-10.1%	+6.4%	3 · 78 · — · 50
$SCHIFFY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	81%	-21.2%	-27.9%	0.0%	— · — · — · 50
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	81%	-27.6%	-34.2%	+14.8%	32 · 54 · — · 52
$PAID2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	80%	+12.1%	-3.6%	+24.4%	— · — · — · 57
$PRISM2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	80%	-16.6%	-16.6%	+4.1%	3 · 88 · — · 55
$VEX2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	80%	-7.3%	-7.5%	0.0%	— · — · — · 52
$1F9162026-10-10 19:00 UTC	79%	-22.2%	-23.8%	+2.1%	— · — · — · 56
$BUN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	79%	-5.8%	-6.7%	+2.7%	— · — · — · 53
$1F9162026-10-10 15:00 UTC	79%	-24.9%	-25.0%	+0.6%	— · — · — · 51
$MONITOR2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	79%	-22.1%	-28.7%	+3.5%	3 · 81 · — · 50
$OTC2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	78%	-1.8%	-12.5%	+4.0%	— · — · — · 56
$PRISM2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	78%	-13.8%	-16.9%	0.0%	3 · 86 · — · 56
$VEX2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	78%	-4.4%	-6.5%	+1.1%	— · — · — · 54
$MONITOR2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	78%	-24.3%	-27.8%	+4.9%	3 · 81 · — · 50
$SAPLING2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	78%	-16.1%	-17.1%	+18.5%	8 · 59 · — · 55
$旺柴2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	78%	+3.2%	-12.1%	+17.3%	10 · 51 · — · 55
$旺柴2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	77%	+8.9%	-7.2%	+23.8%	30 · 58 · — · 53
$旺柴2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	77%	+1.7%	-7.5%	+23.4%	9 · 58 · — · 56
$SI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	77%	+0.1%	-0.1%	+32.4%	12 · 33 · — · 50
$CRAWL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	76%	-34.4%	-40.6%	+10.9%	44 · 53 · — · 52

$INU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
90%
24h return
-9.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.6%
$PAID2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
+11.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.1%
$OTC2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-14.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.3%
$MONITOR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-24.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-27.8%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-44.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-47.7%
$PAID2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
+10.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.1%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-48.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.5%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-38.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.9%
$TENDIES2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
+8.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.8%
$1F9162026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-23.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.1%
$VEX2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-6.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.5%
$TENDIES2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+8.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.0%
$1F9162026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-22.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.4%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-41.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.8%
$PAID2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+13.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.3%
$INU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-11.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.7%
$INU2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.0%
$PRISM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-5.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.7%
$BUN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-5.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.3%
$STRATEGY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-12.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.4%
$MEME2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-4.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.1%
$SCHIFFY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-21.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-27.9%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-27.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-34.2%
$PAID2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
+12.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.6%
$PRISM2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
-16.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.6%
$VEX2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
-7.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.5%
$1F9162026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-22.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.8%
$BUN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-5.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.7%
$1F9162026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-24.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.0%
$MONITOR2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-22.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.7%
$OTC2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-1.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.5%
$PRISM2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.9%
$VEX2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-4.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.5%
$MONITOR2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-24.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-27.8%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-16.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.1%
$旺柴2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
+3.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.1%
$旺柴2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
+8.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.2%
$旺柴2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
+1.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.5%
$SI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
+0.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.1%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
-34.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.6%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 21:11 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $PAID within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 7,656 resolved snapshots · 1,086 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.