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Historical analogs

Similar setups to $WALLET

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live
Similar setups
40
of 7,337 eligible snapshots
Median 24h
+4.4%
follow-through after the setup
Worst 24h drawdown
-62.4%
deepest intraday fall
Positive after 24h
75%
N = 40
ConfidenceConfidence: HIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-13 04:24 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-12

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 75% (95% CI 60–86%)

Median
+4.4%
CI +2.5% … +6.0%
Trimmed mean
+3.7%
10% each side
Mean
+4.9%
σ 11.7%
Range
-14.1% … +55.8%
24h return after similar setups histogram40 samples in 10 bins from -14.1% to +55.8%. Tail bins: 3 above +25.2%.median-14.1%+55.8%0%+25.2%-10%+10%+20%
24h return after similar setups box plotMedian +4.4%, interquartile range +0.9% to +8.1%, whiskers -8.9% to +11.5%, 6 outliers (min -14.1%, max +55.8%).-8.9%+11.5%+4.4%

1 below -13.5% (min -14.1%) · 3 above +16.1% (max +55.8%)

p5
-10.9%
p10
-7.4%
p25
+0.9%
p50
+4.4%
p75
+8.1%
p90
+10.9%
p95
+25.8%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-13 04:24 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum
—
Crowding
—
Early Quality
—
Narrative Velocity
—
Price change 1h
+1.3%
Volume acceleration
-45.5%
Liquidity
$2.10M

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 3 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

  • $STONK2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
    Similarity
    99%
    24h return
    +4.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -3.0%
  • $STONK2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
    Similarity
    98%
    24h return
    +6.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.4%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
    Similarity
    98%
    24h return
    +8.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.8%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
    Similarity
    97%
    24h return
    +7.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.5%
  • $STONK2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
    Similarity
    97%
    24h return
    +5.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -3.8%
  • $BNKR2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
    Similarity
    97%
    24h return
    +2.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.2%
  • $STONK2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
    Similarity
    97%
    24h return
    -6.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -13.7%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
    Similarity
    97%
    24h return
    +2.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.3%
  • $STONK2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    96%
    24h return
    +9.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    0.0%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    96%
    24h return
    -0.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.9%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
    Similarity
    96%
    24h return
    +3.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.2%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
    Similarity
    96%
    24h return
    +4.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -57.7%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
    Similarity
    96%
    24h return
    +1.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.7%
  • $STONK2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
    Similarity
    96%
    24h return
    +1.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.4%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
    Similarity
    95%
    24h return
    +8.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.4%
  • $STONK2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
    Similarity
    94%
    24h return
    +7.7%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -8.2%
  • $STONK2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
    Similarity
    94%
    24h return
    +3.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.1%
  • $STONK2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
    Similarity
    94%
    24h return
    +11.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -6.4%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
    Similarity
    94%
    24h return
    +5.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -58.0%
  • $STONK2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
    Similarity
    93%
    24h return
    +5.7%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -4.2%
  • $IMD2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
    Similarity
    93%
    24h return
    +25.7%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -3.0%
  • $STONK2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
    Similarity
    93%
    24h return
    -6.4%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -7.5%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
    Similarity
    92%
    24h return
    -7.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -59.8%
  • $STONK2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
    Similarity
    92%
    24h return
    -8.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -16.8%
  • $PUMP2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
    Similarity
    92%
    24h return
    +3.6%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -3.1%
  • $STONK2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
    Similarity
    92%
    24h return
    -1.2%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -2.8%
  • $STONK2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
    Similarity
    92%
    24h return
    -11.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -12.3%
  • $BNKR2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
    Similarity
    91%
    24h return
    +4.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.1%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
    Similarity
    91%
    24h return
    -10.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -62.4%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
    Similarity
    91%
    24h return
    +2.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -4.2%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 08:00 UTC
    Similarity
    91%
    24h return
    +8.0%
    Max drawdown 24h
    0.0%
  • $STONK2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
    Similarity
    91%
    24h return
    -1.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -10.0%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
    Similarity
    91%
    24h return
    +55.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -59.3%
  • $PUMP2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
    Similarity
    91%
    24h return
    +8.9%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.5%
  • $BNKR2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
    Similarity
    90%
    24h return
    +4.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    0.0%
  • $PUMP2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
    Similarity
    90%
    24h return
    -14.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -14.9%
  • $BNKR2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
    Similarity
    90%
    24h return
    +2.3%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -0.5%
  • $IMD2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
    Similarity
    90%
    24h return
    +27.5%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.5%
  • $ANSEM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
    Similarity
    90%
    24h return
    +10.8%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -1.3%
  • $IMD2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
    Similarity
    90%
    24h return
    +9.1%
    Max drawdown 24h
    -10.0%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

  • Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
  • Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-13 04:24 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $WALLET within ±24h are excluded.
  • Considered 13,735 resolved snapshots · 7,337 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
  • Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.