Historical analogs

Similar setups to $XSOL

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 7,337 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-3.1%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-43.9%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

33%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-13 04:26 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-12

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 33% (95% CI 20–48%)

Median: -3.1%; CI -8.8% … -0.3%
Trimmed mean: -4.0%; 10% each side
Mean: -2.8%; σ 14.8%
Range: -43.9% … +41.8%

1 below -29.0% (min -43.9%) · 3 above +23.0% (max +41.8%)

p5: -20.8%
p10: -15.1%
p25: -10.9%
p50: -3.1%
p75: +2.2%
p90: +8.9%
p95: +25.1%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-13 04:26 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: —
Price change 1h: +2.3%
Volume acceleration: -14.1%
Liquidity: $434.4K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 3 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$STONKEX2026-10-11 14:00 UTC	97%	-10.5%	-11.9%	+3.6%	— · — · — · 54
$AEON2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	96%	-0.1%	-2.2%	+8.2%	— · — · — · 27
$STONKEX2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	96%	-12.8%	-13.5%	+4.5%	— · — · — · 73
$HMM2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	96%	-14.3%	-16.9%	+5.4%	— · — · — · 65
$AEON2026-10-11 13:00 UTC	95%	+0.9%	-10.9%	+1.8%	— · — · — · 18
$GENIE2026-10-11 11:00 UTC	95%	-2.5%	-16.9%	0.0%	— · — · — · 40
$旺柴2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	95%	+2.7%	-6.5%	+22.5%	9 · 58 · — · 52
$STRATEGY2026-10-11 10:00 UTC	94%	-10.8%	-10.8%	0.0%	— · — · — · 33
$GENIE2026-10-11 13:00 UTC	94%	-5.5%	-16.1%	+0.3%	— · — · — · 37
$GENIE2026-10-11 12:00 UTC	94%	-5.3%	-16.7%	+0.2%	— · — · — · 40
$STONKEX2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	94%	-9.8%	-11.8%	+6.7%	— · — · — · 72
$SCHIFFY2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	94%	-2.2%	-16.0%	+11.8%	— · — · — · 26
$HMM2026-10-11 10:00 UTC	94%	-7.9%	-14.7%	0.0%	3 · 81 · — · 50
$HMM2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	93%	-15.7%	-19.2%	+1.0%	3 · 81 · — · 57
$GENIE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	93%	-3.3%	-5.8%	+10.6%	— · — · — · 22
$SCHIFFY2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	93%	-21.1%	-21.6%	0.0%	— · — · — · 27
$PAID2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	93%	+7.3%	-3.4%	+20.4%	— · — · — · 52
$AEON2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	93%	-4.2%	-4.6%	+5.5%	— · — · — · 24
$TENDIES2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	93%	+0.8%	-7.6%	+1.2%	3 · 62 · — · 48
$HMM2026-10-11 13:00 UTC	93%	+2.0%	-6.4%	+7.7%	3 · 81 · — · 45
$GENIE2026-10-11 14:00 UTC	93%	-11.1%	-15.2%	+0.1%	— · — · — · 37
$旺柴2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	93%	-0.5%	-14.9%	+25.1%	7 · 41 · — · 59
$GRASS2026-10-12 04:00 UTC	92%	-10.8%	-14.1%	+0.2%	— · — · — · 40
$HMM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	92%	-12.8%	-14.2%	+3.8%	— · — · — · 64
$SCHIFFY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	92%	-15.0%	-22.3%	+0.7%	— · — · — · 27
$GENIE2026-10-11 10:00 UTC	92%	-3.0%	-16.7%	+0.5%	— · — · — · 40
$BASECAT2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	92%	+41.8%	0.0%	+51.2%	60 · 90 · — · 42
$YEE2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	92%	+3.5%	-1.6%	+8.7%	— · — · — · —
$TENDIES2026-10-10 22:00 UTC	92%	-0.4%	-8.4%	+1.0%	25 · 70 · — · 47
$MEME2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	92%	+3.1%	-2.0%	+8.9%	— · — · — · 48
$MASK2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	92%	-4.3%	-7.3%	+11.9%	— · — · — · —
$PAID2026-10-11 13:00 UTC	92%	+8.2%	-15.7%	+22.0%	— · — · — · 35
$MEME2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	92%	-0.9%	-16.6%	+15.3%	— · — · — · 53
$HMM2026-10-10 23:00 UTC	92%	-14.8%	-18.4%	+3.6%	— · — · — · 63
$ZC2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	92%	-20.8%	-20.8%	+0.5%	29 · 70 · — · —
$BASECAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	92%	+35.3%	-0.3%	+37.8%	3 · 99 · — · 43
$KNOTS2026-10-11 11:00 UTC	92%	+15.1%	-4.5%	+31.8%	— · — · — · —
$旺柴2026-10-11 14:00 UTC	91%	+7.5%	-10.2%	+32.0%	7 · 50 · — · 45
$PAID2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	91%	+24.5%	-1.7%	+37.8%	— · — · — · 47
$AGENCY2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	91%	-43.9%	-43.9%	+6.1%	42 · 83 · — · 37

$STONKEX2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
Similarity
97%
24h return
-10.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.9%
$AEON2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
96%
24h return
-0.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.2%
$STONKEX2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
96%
24h return
-12.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.5%
$HMM2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
96%
24h return
-14.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.9%
$AEON2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Similarity
95%
24h return
+0.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.9%
$GENIE2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Similarity
95%
24h return
-2.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.9%
$旺柴2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
95%
24h return
+2.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.5%
$STRATEGY2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Similarity
94%
24h return
-10.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.8%
$GENIE2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Similarity
94%
24h return
-5.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.1%
$GENIE2026-10-11 12:00 UTC
Similarity
94%
24h return
-5.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.7%
$STONKEX2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
94%
24h return
-9.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.8%
$SCHIFFY2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
94%
24h return
-2.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.0%
$HMM2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Similarity
94%
24h return
-7.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.7%
$HMM2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
-15.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.2%
$GENIE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
-3.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.8%
$SCHIFFY2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
-21.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.6%
$PAID2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
+7.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.4%
$AEON2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
-4.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.6%
$TENDIES2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
+0.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.6%
$HMM2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
+2.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.4%
$GENIE2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
-11.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.2%
$旺柴2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
93%
24h return
-0.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.9%
$GRASS2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-10.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.1%
$HMM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-12.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.2%
$SCHIFFY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-15.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.3%
$GENIE2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-3.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.7%
$BASECAT2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
+41.8%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$YEE2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
+3.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.6%
$TENDIES2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-0.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.4%
$MEME2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
+3.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.0%
$MASK2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-4.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.3%
$PAID2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
+8.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.7%
$MEME2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-0.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.6%
$HMM2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.4%
$ZC2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-20.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.8%
$BASECAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
+35.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.3%
$KNOTS2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
+15.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.5%
$旺柴2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
+7.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.2%
$PAID2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
+24.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.7%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
-43.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-43.9%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-13 04:26 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $XSOL within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 13,735 resolved snapshots · 7,337 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.