Historical analogs

Similar setups to $SWORDCAT

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 160 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-12.2%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-52.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

23%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 15:47 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 23% (95% CI 12–38%)

Median: -12.2%; CI -19.3% … -8.1%
Trimmed mean: -13.3%; 10% each side
Mean: -12.2%; σ 23.1%
Range: -49.5% … +41.0%

p5: -45.1%
p10: -43.0%
p25: -31.4%
p50: -12.2%
p75: -2.3%
p90: +17.7%
p95: +29.2%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 15:47 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 5
Crowding: 82
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 36
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: —
Liquidity: $214.5K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	81%	-23.9%	-37.0%	+10.5%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	81%	-26.6%	-39.7%	0.0%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	68%	-42.9%	-44.8%	+0.9%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	68%	-45.0%	-46.6%	+5.6%	6 · 83 · — · 37
$UDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	68%	-7.8%	-10.3%	+2.2%	8 · 83 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	67%	-46.7%	-52.3%	0.0%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	62%	-8.1%	-18.2%	+30.7%	2 · 78 · — · 37
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	61%	-44.3%	-49.7%	+5.1%	6 · 83 · — · 33
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	60%	-10.7%	-26.3%	+2.8%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	60%	-11.9%	-31.4%	+3.3%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	52%	-36.3%	-38.3%	+8.2%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	52%	-32.6%	-35.7%	+12.8%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	52%	-9.8%	-25.2%	+19.5%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	52%	-7.4%	-20.9%	+26.4%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	49%	-31.0%	-48.1%	+12.6%	7 · 78 · — · 38
$STONKINU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	49%	-49.5%	-51.1%	+3.3%	7 · 78 · — · 38
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	44%	-13.1%	-14.9%	+0.9%	12 · 85 · — · 36
$BINF2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	44%	+16.2%	-16.0%	+53.5%	3 · 81 · — · 36
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	43%	-14.2%	-15.4%	+0.6%	13 · 83 · — · 36
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	41%	-13.6%	-13.7%	+3.2%	14 · 85 · — · 37
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	41%	-13.8%	-14.9%	+1.8%	14 · 85 · — · 37
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	40%	-26.8%	-41.5%	+14.9%	6 · 63 · — · 39
$RARI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	40%	-12.5%	-25.4%	+19.2%	2 · 78 · — · 42
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	38%	-12.0%	-13.6%	+3.3%	13 · 84 · — · 33
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	38%	+14.8%	0.0%	+63.4%	2 · 78 · — · 42
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	38%	-34.8%	-46.4%	+13.4%	7 · 78 · — · 41
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	37%	-14.8%	-15.0%	+1.7%	14 · 85 · — · 33
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	36%	-36.2%	-49.1%	+8.5%	8 · 63 · — · 40
$STONKINU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	36%	-34.7%	-50.4%	+2.9%	7 · 78 · — · 41
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	31%	+15.9%	-19.4%	+36.5%	3 · 62 · — · 36
$BASECAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	31%	+36.2%	-0.2%	+38.8%	3 · 99 · — · 36
$BASECAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	31%	+28.9%	0.0%	+32.8%	3 · 99 · — · 36
$BASECAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	27%	+17.6%	-2.4%	+29.7%	3 · 99 · — · 33
$MEME2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	23%	-2.7%	-11.1%	+5.2%	3 · 81 · — · 43
$MEME2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	23%	+2.7%	-6.0%	+11.1%	3 · 81 · — · 43
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	21%	+41.0%	0.0%	+56.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	19%	-1.2%	-17.8%	+9.3%	5 · 70 · — · 36
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	19%	+18.8%	-0.2%	+32.7%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	19%	-3.0%	-12.5%	+16.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRISM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	19%	-11.6%	-17.1%	+7.7%	3 · 88 · — · 46

$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-23.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.0%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-26.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.7%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
-42.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.8%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
-45.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.6%
$UDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
-7.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.3%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
67%
24h return
-46.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.3%
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
62%
24h return
-8.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.2%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-44.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.7%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
-10.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.3%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
-11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-31.4%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-36.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.3%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-32.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.7%
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-9.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.2%
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-7.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.9%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-31.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.1%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-49.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-51.1%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
-13.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.9%
$BINF2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
+16.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.0%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
-14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.4%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
-13.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.7%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
-13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.9%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.5%
$RARI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-12.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.4%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-12.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.6%
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-34.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.4%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.0%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.1%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
-34.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-50.4%
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.4%
$BASECAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.2%
$BASECAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+28.9%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$BASECAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
27%
24h return
+17.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.4%
$MEME2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
23%
24h return
-2.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.1%
$MEME2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
23%
24h return
+2.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.0%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
21%
24h return
+41.0%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
19%
24h return
-1.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.8%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
19%
24h return
+18.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.2%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
19%
24h return
-3.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.5%
$PRISM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
19%
24h return
-11.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.1%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 15:47 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $SWORDCAT within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,452 resolved snapshots · 160 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.