Historical analogs

Similar setups to $MEMESTOCK

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 160 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-14.5%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-52.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

20%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 15:46 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 20% (95% CI 10–35%)

Median: -14.5%; CI -28.0% … -12.0%
Trimmed mean: -18.1%; 10% each side
Mean: -14.0%; σ 34.3%
Range: -49.5% … +161%

1 above +30.7% (max +161%)

p5: -46.8%
p10: -44.4%
p25: -33.1%
p50: -14.5%
p75: -8.0%
p90: +14.8%
p95: +15.9%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 15:46 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 3
Crowding: 67
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 36
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: —
Liquidity: $144.3K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	79%	+15.9%	-19.4%	+36.5%	3 · 62 · — · 36
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	66%	-8.1%	-18.2%	+30.7%	2 · 78 · — · 37
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	57%	-31.0%	-48.1%	+12.6%	7 · 78 · — · 38
$STONKINU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	57%	-49.5%	-51.1%	+3.3%	7 · 78 · — · 38
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	55%	-9.8%	-25.2%	+19.5%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	55%	-7.4%	-20.9%	+26.4%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	54%	-26.8%	-41.5%	+14.9%	6 · 63 · — · 39
$UDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	52%	-7.8%	-10.3%	+2.2%	8 · 83 · — · 36
$BINF2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	49%	+16.2%	-16.0%	+53.5%	3 · 81 · — · 36
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	49%	-36.2%	-49.1%	+8.5%	8 · 63 · — · 40
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	46%	-23.9%	-37.0%	+10.5%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	46%	-26.6%	-39.7%	0.0%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	44%	-34.8%	-46.4%	+13.4%	7 · 78 · — · 41
$STONKINU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	43%	-34.7%	-50.4%	+2.9%	7 · 78 · — · 41
$RARI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	43%	-12.5%	-25.4%	+19.2%	2 · 78 · — · 42
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	42%	+14.8%	0.0%	+63.4%	2 · 78 · — · 42
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	39%	-14.2%	-15.4%	+0.6%	13 · 83 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	38%	-42.9%	-44.8%	+0.9%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	38%	-10.7%	-26.3%	+2.8%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	37%	-46.7%	-52.3%	0.0%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	37%	-13.1%	-14.9%	+0.9%	12 · 85 · — · 36
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	35%	-11.9%	-31.4%	+3.3%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	33%	-13.6%	-13.7%	+3.2%	14 · 85 · — · 37
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	33%	-13.8%	-14.9%	+1.8%	14 · 85 · — · 37
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	33%	-12.0%	-13.6%	+3.3%	13 · 84 · — · 33
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	30%	-36.3%	-38.3%	+8.2%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	30%	-32.6%	-35.7%	+12.8%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$URMOM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	30%	-19.3%	-29.9%	+21.8%	3 · 71 · — · 44
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	30%	-14.8%	-15.0%	+1.7%	14 · 85 · — · 33
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	29%	-45.0%	-46.6%	+5.6%	6 · 83 · — · 37
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	28%	+14.8%	-4.1%	+46.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	28%	+14.2%	0.0%	+47.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	26%	-44.3%	-49.7%	+5.1%	6 · 83 · — · 33
$STONKINU2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	25%	-49.4%	-52.0%	+7.9%	7 · 68 · — · 45
$AI2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	16%	+4.1%	-2.7%	+11.5%	10 · 42 · — · 40
$URMOM2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	16%	+10.4%	-11.3%	+18.6%	3 · 71 · — · 46
$URMOM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	16%	-24.6%	-32.3%	+17.5%	3 · 71 · — · 46
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	13%	-29.9%	-42.6%	+15.4%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	13%	-29.3%	-38.9%	+22.9%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	12%	+161%	-22.1%	+180%	5 · 56 · — · 46

$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
+15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.4%
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
-8.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.2%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
-31.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.1%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
-49.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-51.1%
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
55%
24h return
-9.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.2%
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
55%
24h return
-7.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.9%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
54%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.5%
$UDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-7.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.3%
$BINF2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
+16.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-16.0%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.1%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
-23.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.0%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
-26.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.7%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
-34.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.4%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
-34.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-50.4%
$RARI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
-12.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.4%
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.4%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-42.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.8%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-10.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.3%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-46.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.3%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-13.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.9%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
-11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-31.4%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
-13.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.7%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
-13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.9%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
-12.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.6%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-36.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.3%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-32.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.7%
$URMOM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-19.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-29.9%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.0%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
-45.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.6%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
28%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.1%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
28%
24h return
+14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
26%
24h return
-44.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.7%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
-49.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.0%
$AI2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
16%
24h return
+4.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.7%
$URMOM2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
16%
24h return
+10.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.3%
$URMOM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
16%
24h return
-24.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.3%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
13%
24h return
-29.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.6%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
13%
24h return
-29.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.9%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
12%
24h return
+161%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.1%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 15:46 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $MEMESTOCK within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,452 resolved snapshots · 160 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.