Historical analogs

Similar setups to $SAPLING

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 236 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-11.3%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-52.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

25%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 17:01 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 25% (95% CI 14–40%)

Median: -11.3%; CI -26.7% … -3.0%
Trimmed mean: -13.6%; 10% each side
Mean: -9.3%; σ 35.2%
Range: -46.7% … +161%

1 above +60.3% (max +161%)

p5: -44.3%
p10: -41.8%
p25: -31.9%
p50: -11.3%
p75: -0.1%
p90: +16.2%
p95: +20.8%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 17:01 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 7
Crowding: 66
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 38
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: —
Liquidity: $274.3K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	89%	-26.8%	-41.5%	+14.9%	6 · 63 · — · 39
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	84%	-36.2%	-49.1%	+8.5%	8 · 63 · — · 40
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	64%	+14.8%	-4.1%	+46.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	64%	+14.2%	0.0%	+47.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	61%	-42.9%	-44.8%	+0.9%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	61%	-46.7%	-52.3%	0.0%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	57%	-23.9%	-37.0%	+10.5%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	57%	-26.6%	-39.7%	0.0%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	53%	-11.9%	-31.4%	+3.3%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	52%	-10.7%	-26.3%	+2.8%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$AGENCY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	51%	-41.6%	-43.6%	0.0%	7 · 78 · — · 43
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	50%	+2.0%	-5.5%	+2.1%	5 · 62 · — · 42
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	50%	-32.6%	-35.7%	+12.8%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	50%	-36.3%	-38.3%	+8.2%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	49%	-45.0%	-46.6%	+5.6%	6 · 83 · — · 37
$招财猫2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	49%	-2.8%	-3.3%	+0.4%	4 · 70 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	47%	-0.8%	-11.6%	+34.7%	8 · 65 · — · 46
$AGENCY2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	47%	-38.6%	-40.6%	+0.9%	7 · 78 · — · 44
$SAPLING2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	45%	-6.9%	-9.1%	+39.0%	9 · 61 · — · 46
$BATON2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	45%	+9.7%	-13.9%	+19.6%	5 · 65 · — · 39
$招财猫2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	44%	-2.6%	-3.2%	+0.5%	4 · 70 · — · 44
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	44%	+15.9%	-19.4%	+36.5%	3 · 62 · — · 36
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	42%	-29.9%	-42.6%	+15.4%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	42%	-29.3%	-38.9%	+22.9%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$INU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	42%	-22.0%	-24.6%	0.0%	5 · 67 · — · 45
$INU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	42%	-14.8%	-19.1%	+0.2%	5 · 67 · — · 45
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	41%	+41.0%	0.0%	+56.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	40%	-1.2%	-17.8%	+9.3%	5 · 70 · — · 36
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	40%	+19.7%	-5.3%	+32.5%	11 · 54 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	40%	-18.4%	-19.4%	+25.4%	8 · 56 · — · 46
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	40%	-8.1%	-18.2%	+30.7%	2 · 78 · — · 37
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	40%	-44.3%	-49.7%	+5.1%	6 · 83 · — · 33
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	39%	+161%	-22.1%	+180%	5 · 56 · — · 46
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	39%	-9.8%	-25.2%	+19.5%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	39%	-7.4%	-20.9%	+26.4%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	39%	+18.8%	-0.2%	+32.7%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	39%	-3.0%	-12.5%	+16.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$BATON2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	38%	+13.8%	-11.3%	+23.2%	4 · 73 · — · 41
$CRAWL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	38%	-31.7%	-40.4%	+20.0%	8 · 49 · — · 44
$CRAWL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	38%	-32.3%	-38.7%	+23.3%	8 · 49 · — · 44

$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
89%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.5%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.1%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.1%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
+14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-42.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.8%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
-46.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.3%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
-23.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.0%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
57%
24h return
-26.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.7%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
53%
24h return
-11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-31.4%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-10.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.3%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
51%
24h return
-41.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-43.6%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
+2.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.5%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
-32.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.7%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
-36.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.3%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-45.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.6%
$招财猫2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-2.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.3%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
47%
24h return
-0.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.6%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
47%
24h return
-38.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.6%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
45%
24h return
-6.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.1%
$BATON2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
45%
24h return
+9.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.9%
$招财猫2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
-2.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.2%
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
+15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.4%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-29.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.6%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-29.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.9%
$INU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-22.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-24.6%
$INU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.1%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+41.0%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-1.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.8%
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
+19.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.3%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-18.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.4%
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-8.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.2%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-44.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.7%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
+161%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.1%
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-9.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.2%
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-7.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.9%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
+18.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.2%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-3.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.5%
$BATON2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
+13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.3%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-31.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.4%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-32.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.7%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 17:01 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $SAPLING within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,848 resolved snapshots · 236 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.