Historical analogs

Similar setups to $BTC

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 5,091 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-10.1%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-79.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

23%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-13 03:21 UTC · 2026-10-11 → 2026-10-12

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 23% (95% CI 12–38%)

Median: -10.1%; CI -13.5% … -4.5%
Trimmed mean: -14.2%; 10% each side
Mean: -15.6%; σ 24.4%
Range: -69.9% … +30.4%

p5: -57.8%
p10: -54.7%
p25: -29.1%
p50: -10.1%
p75: -3.9%
p90: +7.3%
p95: +17.3%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-13 03:21 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 72
Price change 1h: +0.5%
Volume acceleration: -98.7%
Liquidity: $125.7K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$PONGO2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	92%	-13.9%	-20.8%	+10.3%	— · — · — · 72
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	92%	-13.1%	-13.1%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 72
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	92%	-4.3%	-4.3%	+1.0%	— · — · — · 72
$PONGO2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	92%	-15.7%	-21.1%	+9.8%	— · — · — · 71
$PONGO2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	91%	-4.5%	-5.1%	+9.3%	— · — · — · 73
$PONGO2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	91%	-12.4%	-20.7%	+10.5%	— · — · — · 71
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	91%	-4.0%	-4.0%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 73
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	91%	-4.0%	-4.0%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 73
$GTA2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	89%	+30.4%	-21.1%	+38.0%	2 · 81 · — · 73
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	89%	-8.2%	-8.2%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 74
$GTA2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	89%	+11.9%	-15.8%	+47.3%	2 · 81 · — · 73
$PONGO2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	88%	-8.0%	-8.0%	+7.4%	— · — · — · 73
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	88%	+17.1%	0.0%	+30.3%	— · — · — · 74
$SAFU2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	87%	-4.7%	-25.2%	+157%	3 · 73 · — · 72
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	86%	-14.0%	-28.5%	+23.4%	— · — · — · 71
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	86%	-39.9%	-53.0%	+14.8%	— · — · — · 71
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	86%	-57.2%	-57.2%	+10.4%	— · — · — · 73
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	86%	-4.0%	-4.0%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 73
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	85%	-10.4%	-21.8%	+35.1%	— · — · — · 74
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	85%	-3.8%	-8.8%	+11.0%	— · — · — · 71
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	85%	-53.5%	-59.6%	+1.8%	— · — · — · 74
$GTA2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	84%	+21.1%	-23.6%	+21.1%	2 · 81 · — · 72
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	84%	-54.6%	-58.7%	+4.0%	— · — · — · 73
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	84%	-45.9%	-54.1%	+12.1%	— · — · — · 71
$BULLISH2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	84%	-25.8%	-52.8%	+28.0%	10 · 73 · — · 68
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	84%	+4.9%	0.0%	+5.7%	— · — · — · 68
$SUMMER2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	83%	-11.9%	-33.5%	+89.9%	— · — · — · 71
$GTA2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	83%	-10.7%	-17.7%	+20.3%	— · — · — · 68
$MICHI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	83%	+4.1%	-2.0%	+5.3%	— · — · — · 68
$ALTAI2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	82%	-68.5%	-79.3%	+10.3%	3 · 65 · — · 68
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	81%	+6.8%	-3.3%	+17.7%	— · — · — · 71
$DOPE2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	81%	-69.9%	-78.6%	0.0%	26 · 75 · — · 71
$JOBY2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	81%	-6.1%	-11.2%	+3.0%	— · — · — · 73
$KLN2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	81%	-39.2%	-39.6%	+3.6%	— · — · — · 67
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	81%	-55.5%	-56.0%	+6.3%	— · — · — · 73
$KLN2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	81%	-39.9%	-40.1%	+2.8%	— · — · — · 67
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	80%	+0.5%	-2.6%	+0.5%	— · — · — · 67
$MADE2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	79%	+4.2%	-10.4%	+13.2%	— · — · — · 67
$SAFU2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	79%	-12.0%	-68.2%	+32.2%	40 · 73 · — · 68
$BULLISH2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	79%	-9.7%	-51.5%	+31.7%	10 · 73 · — · 68

$PONGO2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-13.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.8%
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-13.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.1%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-4.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.3%
$PONGO2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-15.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.1%
$PONGO2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
-4.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.1%
$PONGO2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
-12.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.7%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
-4.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.0%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
91%
24h return
-4.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.0%
$GTA2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
89%
24h return
+30.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.1%
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
89%
24h return
-8.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.2%
$GTA2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
89%
24h return
+11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.8%
$PONGO2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-8.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.0%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
+17.1%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$SAFU2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-4.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.2%
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-14.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.5%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-39.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-53.0%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-57.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-57.2%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-4.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.0%
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-10.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.8%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.8%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-53.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-59.6%
$GTA2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
+21.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.6%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-54.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-58.7%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-45.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-54.1%
$BULLISH2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-25.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.8%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
+4.9%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$SUMMER2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-33.5%
$GTA2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-10.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.7%
$MICHI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+4.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.0%
$ALTAI2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-68.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-79.3%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
+6.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.3%
$DOPE2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-69.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-78.6%
$JOBY2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-6.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.2%
$KLN2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-39.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.6%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-55.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-56.0%
$KLN2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-39.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.1%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
+0.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.6%
$MADE2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
+4.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.4%
$SAFU2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-12.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-68.2%
$BULLISH2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-9.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-51.5%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-13 03:21 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $BTC within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 13,484 resolved snapshots · 5,091 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.