Historical analogs

Similar setups to $MARSX

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 5,091 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-29.3%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-94.8%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

33%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-13 03:21 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-12

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 33% (95% CI 20–48%)

Median: -29.3%; CI -36.0% … -17.7%
Trimmed mean: -23.9%; 10% each side
Mean: -23.4%; σ 43.5%
Range: -94.3% … +69.8%

p5: -93.2%
p10: -84.4%
p25: -43.7%
p50: -29.3%
p75: +5.4%
p90: +38.3%
p95: +42.7%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-13 03:21 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 72
Price change 1h: -21.6%
Volume acceleration: -78.6%
Liquidity: $42.9K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$UP2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	90%	-47.8%	-58.1%	+15.0%	— · — · — · 72
$UP2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	88%	-30.1%	-51.6%	+23.0%	— · — · — · 73
$尤栗2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	87%	-93.1%	-93.8%	+3.8%	2 · 78 · — · 71
$UP2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	86%	-28.5%	-47.8%	+24.1%	— · — · — · 74
$API2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	86%	+38.2%	-9.7%	+106%	— · — · — · 73
$尤栗2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	82%	-74.5%	-83.2%	+189%	— · — · — · 72
$API2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	82%	+46.5%	-0.3%	+128%	— · — · — · 73
$UP2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	81%	-33.2%	-41.6%	+28.1%	— · — · — · 71
$NORMIE2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	78%	+39.5%	-14.6%	+183%	— · — · — · 71
$API2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	78%	+22.7%	-19.9%	+82.9%	— · — · — · 71
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	76%	+1.3%	-40.9%	+61.3%	— · — · — · 73
$API2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	76%	+10.1%	-19.9%	+82.9%	— · — · — · 72
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	75%	-16.1%	-43.2%	+54.9%	— · — · — · 71
$ALTAI2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	75%	-78.7%	-80.9%	0.0%	— · — · — · 67
$ALTAI2026-10-10 21:00 UTC	73%	-94.3%	-94.3%	+10.9%	— · — · — · 66
$API2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	72%	-20.9%	-45.6%	+56.5%	— · — · — · 67
$ALTAI2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	72%	-84.1%	-85.6%	+0.6%	— · — · — · 67
$尤栗2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	72%	-71.0%	-79.3%	+256%	— · — · — · 71
$NORMIE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	72%	+42.5%	0.0%	+250%	— · — · — · 73
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	69%	-36.2%	-36.2%	+46.7%	— · — · — · 72
$尤栗2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	69%	-94.3%	-94.8%	+8.1%	2 · 78 · — · 71
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	68%	+3.7%	-39.6%	+64.8%	— · — · — · 74
$OMNI2026-10-11 08:00 UTC	68%	+3.8%	-22.4%	+52.3%	4 · 90 · — · 65
$OMNI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	67%	-21.5%	-39.4%	+19.1%	4 · 90 · — · 68
$NORMIE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	67%	+17.8%	-27.2%	+141%	— · — · — · 72
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	67%	-22.4%	-32.6%	+54.8%	— · — · — · 73
$NORMIE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	66%	+33.4%	-37.5%	+129%	— · — · — · 73
$NORMIE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	66%	+33.6%	-26.9%	+167%	— · — · — · 73
$OMNI2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	66%	-19.3%	-42.2%	+13.5%	4 · 90 · — · 67
$SI2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	65%	-35.7%	-40.5%	+15.0%	— · — · — · 71
$UP2026-10-11 08:00 UTC	65%	-67.3%	-70.8%	+68.4%	— · — · — · 65
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	65%	-21.2%	-49.0%	+39.1%	— · — · — · 71
$SI2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	64%	-33.1%	-44.7%	+12.0%	— · — · — · 74
$ALTAI2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	64%	-86.3%	-86.5%	+1.6%	— · — · — · 68
$TM2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	64%	+69.8%	-13.5%	+127%	3 · 86 · — · 66
$SI2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	64%	-42.3%	-60.8%	0.0%	— · — · — · 73
$FACTORY2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	64%	-38.1%	-46.4%	+12.7%	— · — · — · 65
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	63%	-38.9%	-41.8%	+93.4%	— · — · — · 68
$UP2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	63%	-32.4%	-46.3%	+0.3%	— · — · — · 71
$UP2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	63%	-35.8%	-48.4%	+13.1%	— · — · — · 72

$UP2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
90%
24h return
-47.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-58.1%
$UP2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-30.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-51.6%
$尤栗2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-93.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-93.8%
$UP2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-28.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-47.8%
$API2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
+38.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.7%
$尤栗2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-74.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-83.2%
$API2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
+46.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.3%
$UP2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-33.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.6%
$NORMIE2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
+39.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.6%
$API2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
+22.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.9%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
+1.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.9%
$API2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
+10.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.9%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-16.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-43.2%
$ALTAI2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-78.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-80.9%
$ALTAI2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Similarity
73%
24h return
-94.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-94.3%
$API2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
-20.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-45.6%
$ALTAI2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
-84.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-85.6%
$尤栗2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
-71.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-79.3%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
+42.5%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-36.2%
$尤栗2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-94.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-94.8%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
+3.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.6%
$OMNI2026-10-11 08:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
+3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-22.4%
$OMNI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
67%
24h return
-21.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.4%
$NORMIE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
67%
24h return
+17.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-27.2%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
67%
24h return
-22.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.6%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
+33.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.5%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
+33.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.9%
$OMNI2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
-19.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.2%
$SI2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-35.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.5%
$UP2026-10-11 08:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-67.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-70.8%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-21.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.0%
$SI2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-33.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.7%
$ALTAI2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-86.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-86.5%
$TM2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
+69.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.5%
$SI2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-42.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-60.8%
$FACTORY2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-38.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.4%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-38.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.8%
$UP2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-32.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.3%
$UP2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
-35.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.4%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-13 03:21 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $MARSX within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 13,484 resolved snapshots · 5,091 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.