Historical analogs

Similar setups to $PENGU

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 802 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

0.0%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-11.7%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

50%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 19:52 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 50% (95% CI 35–65%)

Median: 0.0%; CI -4.5% … +1.7%
Trimmed mean: -0.9%; 10% each side
Mean: -0.2%; σ 7.5%
Range: -11.0% … +23.1%

2 above +16.3% (max +23.1%)

p5: -9.6%
p10: -8.7%
p25: -5.6%
p50: 0.0%
p75: +2.8%
p90: +8.6%
p95: +11.7%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 19:52 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 52
Price change 1h: +0.5%
Volume acceleration: -30.5%
Liquidity: $3.87M

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$USELESS2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	83%	+7.5%	-2.6%	+9.1%	2 · 81 · — · 55
$USELESS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	81%	+1.8%	-2.1%	+3.3%	2 · 81 · — · 54
$IMD2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	80%	+11.4%	-8.1%	+15.0%	— · — · — · 52
$IMD2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	79%	+9.1%	-10.0%	+12.7%	— · — · — · 51
$CATE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	77%	-5.8%	-5.9%	+1.1%	78 · 18 · — · 49
$USELESS2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	75%	+2.2%	-1.7%	+3.7%	2 · 81 · — · 56
$USELESS2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	74%	+1.4%	-2.5%	+2.9%	2 · 81 · — · 53
$CATE2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	70%	+0.1%	-6.1%	+0.8%	43 · 19 · — · 48
$CATE2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	70%	-6.8%	-6.8%	0.0%	80 · 17 · — · 47
$CATE2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	69%	-4.0%	-4.0%	+3.1%	24 · 17 · — · 47
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	66%	+2.4%	-4.5%	+2.5%	— · — · — · 46
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	63%	+8.5%	-4.3%	+9.1%	— · — · — · 45
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	58%	+1.2%	-5.6%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 44
$ANSEM2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	58%	+3.0%	-5.0%	+3.5%	— · — · — · 45
$ANSEM2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	56%	+2.8%	-4.2%	+4.2%	— · — · — · 46
$ANSEM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	56%	+2.8%	-4.2%	+4.2%	— · — · — · 44
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	55%	+0.7%	-6.1%	+0.8%	— · — · — · 43
$PENGU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	54%	-3.0%	-3.0%	+0.3%	— · — · — · 56
$CATE2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	53%	-0.3%	-0.8%	+8.2%	35 · 17 · — · 43
$IMD2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	52%	+7.2%	-11.6%	+10.7%	— · — · — · 53
$SURPLUS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	52%	-10.6%	-11.7%	0.0%	— · — · — · 51
$ANSEM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	50%	+1.2%	-5.7%	+2.6%	— · — · — · 43
$CATE2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	48%	+1.5%	-1.1%	+8.5%	19 · 17 · — · 43
$USELESS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	46%	+2.9%	-1.1%	+4.4%	2 · 81 · — · 46
$PENGU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	44%	-2.7%	-2.7%	+0.5%	— · — · — · 63
$ZCAT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	43%	-0.1%	-10.4%	+8.3%	— · — · — · 45
$ORBIO2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	42%	-9.0%	-9.0%	+12.8%	8 · 45 · — · 47
$PENGU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	41%	-2.5%	-2.5%	+0.7%	— · — · — · 64
$ZCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	40%	-8.0%	-10.3%	+8.4%	— · — · — · 46
$ZCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	37%	-8.0%	-10.3%	+8.4%	— · — · — · 44
$ORBIO2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	37%	-11.0%	-11.0%	+10.4%	8 · 45 · — · 46
$CATE2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	36%	-5.1%	-5.5%	+3.3%	30 · 17 · — · 41
$BUN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	35%	-5.2%	-6.3%	+3.2%	— · — · — · 53
$BUN2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	35%	-9.6%	-9.6%	0.0%	— · — · — · 56
$BUN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	35%	-8.7%	-9.4%	+0.6%	— · — · — · 56
$BUN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	35%	-5.8%	-6.7%	+2.7%	— · — · — · 53
$CATE2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	34%	-5.3%	-5.3%	+3.6%	30 · 18 · — · 39
$BUN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	34%	-5.5%	-6.3%	+3.1%	— · — · — · 57
$BATON2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	33%	+18.3%	-7.3%	+28.7%	4 · 79 · — · 48
$BATON2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	33%	+23.1%	-3.6%	+33.9%	4 · 79 · — · 49

$USELESS2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+7.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.6%
$USELESS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
+1.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.1%
$IMD2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
+11.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.1%
$IMD2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
+9.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.0%
$CATE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
-5.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.9%
$USELESS2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
+2.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.7%
$USELESS2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
+1.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.5%
$CATE2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
70%
24h return
+0.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.1%
$CATE2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
70%
24h return
-6.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.8%
$CATE2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-4.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.0%
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
+2.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.5%
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
+8.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.3%
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
+1.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.6%
$ANSEM2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
+3.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.0%
$ANSEM2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
+2.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.2%
$ANSEM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
+2.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.2%
$CASHCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
55%
24h return
+0.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.1%
$PENGU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
54%
24h return
-3.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.0%
$CATE2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
53%
24h return
-0.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.8%
$IMD2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
+7.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.6%
$SURPLUS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-10.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.7%
$ANSEM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
50%
24h return
+1.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.7%
$CATE2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
+1.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.1%
$USELESS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
+2.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.1%
$PENGU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
-2.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.7%
$ZCAT2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
-0.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.4%
$ORBIO2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-9.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.0%
$PENGU2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
-2.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.5%
$ZCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-8.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.3%
$ZCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-8.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.3%
$ORBIO2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-11.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.0%
$CATE2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
-5.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.5%
$BUN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
-5.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.3%
$BUN2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
-9.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.6%
$BUN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
-8.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.4%
$BUN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
-5.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.7%
$CATE2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
34%
24h return
-5.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.3%
$BUN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
34%
24h return
-5.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.3%
$BATON2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
+18.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.3%
$BATON2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
+23.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.6%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 19:52 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $PENGU within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 7,250 resolved snapshots · 802 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.