Historical analogs

Similar setups to $PILL

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 5,091 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-4.4%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-78.6%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

30%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-13 03:18 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-12

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 30% (95% CI 18–45%)

Median: -4.4%; CI -11.1% … -2.3%
Trimmed mean: -9.9%; 10% each side
Mean: -11.8%; σ 23.8%
Range: -69.9% … +30.4%

2 below -56.2% (min -69.9%)

p5: -54.7%
p10: -50.7%
p25: -14.5%
p50: -4.4%
p75: +3.7%
p90: +12.2%
p95: +16.0%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-13 03:18 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 73
Price change 1h: +3.7%
Volume acceleration: -55.4%
Liquidity: $172.1K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	92%	-4.0%	-4.0%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 73
$DOPE2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	90%	-69.9%	-78.6%	0.0%	26 · 75 · — · 71
$JOBY2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	88%	-6.1%	-11.2%	+3.0%	— · — · — · 73
$PURR2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	85%	-0.8%	-0.8%	+22.8%	— · — · — · 73
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	83%	-4.0%	-4.0%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 73
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	83%	-4.0%	-4.0%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 73
$GTA2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	83%	+11.9%	-15.8%	+47.3%	2 · 81 · — · 73
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	83%	-4.3%	-4.3%	+1.0%	— · — · — · 72
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	83%	-8.2%	-8.2%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 74
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	83%	-13.1%	-13.1%	+1.3%	— · — · — · 72
$PURR2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	81%	+3.7%	0.0%	+26.6%	— · — · — · 72
$DOPE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	81%	-46.8%	-72.1%	+55.9%	3 · 81 · — · 73
$GTA2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	80%	+30.4%	-21.1%	+38.0%	2 · 81 · — · 73
$SAFU2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	80%	-12.0%	-68.2%	+32.2%	40 · 73 · — · 68
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	80%	-57.2%	-57.2%	+10.4%	— · — · — · 73
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	79%	-3.8%	-8.8%	+11.0%	— · — · — · 71
$KLN2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	79%	-40.2%	-41.0%	+1.1%	— · — · — · 68
$PONGO2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	79%	-8.0%	-8.0%	+7.4%	— · — · — · 73
$DOPE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	79%	-50.4%	-75.4%	+37.5%	3 · 81 · — · 72
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	78%	+3.7%	0.0%	+4.5%	— · — · — · 68
$SECRETFROG2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	78%	-40.6%	-48.2%	0.0%	— · — · — · 71
$SAFU2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	78%	-46.6%	-66.5%	+39.6%	2 · 81 · — · 68
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	77%	-14.0%	-28.5%	+23.4%	— · — · — · 71
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	77%	-53.5%	-59.6%	+1.8%	— · — · — · 74
$GTA2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	77%	+21.1%	-23.6%	+21.1%	2 · 81 · — · 72
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	76%	-54.6%	-58.7%	+4.0%	— · — · — · 73
$JOBY2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	76%	-6.1%	-11.2%	+3.0%	— · — · — · 72
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	76%	-10.4%	-21.8%	+35.1%	— · — · — · 74
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	76%	+15.4%	0.0%	+30.3%	— · — · — · 73
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	76%	+6.8%	-3.3%	+17.7%	— · — · — · 71
$MADE2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	75%	+2.3%	-9.7%	+14.1%	— · — · — · 68
$MICHI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	75%	+4.1%	-2.0%	+5.3%	— · — · — · 68
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	75%	+4.9%	0.0%	+5.7%	— · — · — · 68
$PONGO2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	75%	-15.9%	-20.7%	+10.4%	— · — · — · 74
$SUMMER2026-10-12 03:00 UTC	75%	-11.9%	-33.5%	+89.9%	— · — · — · 71
$MADE2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	75%	+15.7%	-7.0%	+25.3%	— · — · — · 67
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	75%	-0.2%	-2.6%	+0.3%	— · — · — · 67
$PONGO2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	75%	-4.5%	-5.1%	+9.3%	— · — · — · 73
$MADE2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	74%	+4.2%	-10.4%	+13.2%	— · — · — · 67
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	74%	-3.8%	-9.8%	+9.0%	2 · 78 · — · 66

$BIOLLM2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
92%
24h return
-4.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.0%
$DOPE2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
90%
24h return
-69.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-78.6%
$JOBY2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-6.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.2%
$PURR2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
85%
24h return
-0.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.8%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-4.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.0%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-4.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.0%
$GTA2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
+11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.8%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-4.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.3%
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-8.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.2%
$BIOLLM2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-13.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.1%
$PURR2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
+3.7%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$DOPE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
-46.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-72.1%
$GTA2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
+30.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.1%
$SAFU2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
-12.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-68.2%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
80%
24h return
-57.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-57.2%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.8%
$KLN2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-40.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.0%
$PONGO2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-8.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.0%
$DOPE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-50.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-75.4%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
+3.7%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$SECRETFROG2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-40.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.2%
$SAFU2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
78%
24h return
-46.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-66.5%
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
-14.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.5%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
-53.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-59.6%
$GTA2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
+21.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.6%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
-54.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-58.7%
$JOBY2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
-6.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.2%
$PUMPCAT2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
-10.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.8%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
+15.4%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
+6.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.3%
$MADE2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
+2.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.7%
$MICHI2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
+4.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.0%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
+4.9%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$PONGO2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.7%
$SUMMER2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-33.5%
$MADE2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
+15.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.0%
$BIOLLM2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-0.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.6%
$PONGO2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-4.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.1%
$MADE2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
+4.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.4%
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
-3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.8%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-13 03:18 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $PILL within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 13,484 resolved snapshots · 5,091 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.