Historical analogs

Similar setups to $PUMPOWEEN

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 120 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-21.6%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-52.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

10%

N = 20

ConfidenceMEDIUM20 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 14:56 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 20 · Positive after 24h 10% (95% CI 3–30%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal

Median: -21.6%; CI -31.8% … -13.7%
Trimmed mean: -22.3%; 10% each side
Mean: -20.8%; σ 17.6%
Range: -46.7% … +17.6%

p5: -45.1%
p10: -44.4%
p25: -33.1%
p50: -21.6%
p75: -13.2%
p90: -5.1%
p95: +15.0%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 14:56 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 10
Crowding: 87
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 33
Price change 1h: +0.6%
Volume acceleration: -74.7%
Liquidity: $83.7K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 6 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	84%	-12.0%	-13.6%	+3.3%	13 · 84 · — · 33
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	83%	-14.8%	-15.0%	+1.7%	14 · 85 · — · 33
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	76%	-14.2%	-15.4%	+0.6%	13 · 83 · — · 36
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	69%	-13.8%	-14.9%	+1.8%	14 · 85 · — · 37
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	68%	-13.6%	-13.7%	+3.2%	14 · 85 · — · 37
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	42%	-8.1%	-18.2%	+30.7%	2 · 78 · — · 37
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	34%	-23.9%	-37.0%	+10.5%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	33%	-34.8%	-46.4%	+13.4%	7 · 78 · — · 41
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	31%	-7.4%	-20.9%	+26.4%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	31%	+14.8%	0.0%	+63.4%	2 · 78 · — · 42
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	22%	-46.7%	-52.3%	0.0%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	21%	-45.0%	-46.6%	+5.6%	6 · 83 · — · 37
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	17%	-26.6%	-39.7%	0.0%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	16%	-44.3%	-49.7%	+5.1%	6 · 83 · — · 33
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	16%	-36.3%	-38.3%	+8.2%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	15%	-32.6%	-35.7%	+12.8%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	9%	-31.0%	-48.1%	+12.6%	7 · 78 · — · 38
$BASECAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	6%	+17.6%	-2.4%	+29.7%	3 · 99 · — · 33
$URMOM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	1%	-24.6%	-32.3%	+17.5%	3 · 71 · — · 46
$URMOM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	1%	-19.3%	-29.9%	+21.8%	3 · 71 · — · 44

$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-12.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.6%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.0%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
-14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.4%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
69%
24h return
-13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.9%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
68%
24h return
-13.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.7%
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-8.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.2%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
34%
24h return
-23.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.0%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
-34.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.4%
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
-7.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.9%
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
22%
24h return
-46.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.3%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
21%
24h return
-45.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.6%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
17%
24h return
-26.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.7%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
16%
24h return
-44.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.7%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
16%
24h return
-36.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.3%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
-32.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.7%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
9%
24h return
-31.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.1%
$BASECAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
6%
24h return
+17.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.4%
$URMOM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
1%
24h return
-24.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.3%
$URMOM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
1%
24h return
-19.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-29.9%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 14:56 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $PUMPOWEEN within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,261 resolved snapshots · 120 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.