Historical analogs

Similar setups to $HMM

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 675 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-4.7%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-65.2%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

35%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 18:44 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 35% (95% CI 22–50%)

Median: -4.7%; CI -8.7% … -1.0%
Trimmed mean: -4.6%; 10% each side
Mean: +7.9%; σ 53.6%
Range: -35.2% … +205%

3 above +39.1% (max +205%)

p5: -29.8%
p10: -26.2%
p25: -13.4%
p50: -4.7%
p75: +3.7%
p90: +17.4%
p95: +161%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 18:44 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 69
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: -63.6%
Liquidity: $419.1K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 3 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$FONE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	81%	+1.1%	-4.6%	+16.0%	— · — · — · 66
$OTC2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	81%	+0.1%	-10.8%	+6.0%	— · — · — · 66
$BUN2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	73%	-8.1%	-8.1%	+0.6%	— · — · — · 66
$PAID2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	71%	+12.0%	-4.8%	+24.2%	— · — · — · 64
$PAID2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	71%	+16.4%	-1.0%	+29.1%	— · — · — · 66
$HMM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	66%	-12.8%	-14.2%	+3.8%	— · — · — · 64
$BUN2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	65%	-8.6%	-8.6%	+0.1%	— · — · — · 64
$FONE2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	64%	-2.1%	-7.6%	+12.4%	— · — · — · 63
$HMM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	64%	-13.8%	-15.1%	+2.6%	— · — · — · 63
$PAID2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	63%	+16.1%	-1.3%	+28.8%	— · — · — · 63
$牛来2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	60%	-5.5%	-6.3%	+0.9%	— · — · — · 66
$BUN2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	60%	-8.3%	-8.3%	+0.6%	— · — · — · 63
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	59%	-3.8%	-9.8%	+9.0%	2 · 78 · — · 66
$MADE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	56%	-2.1%	-9.6%	+3.9%	— · — · — · 66
$MICHI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	54%	-1.5%	-1.5%	+2.6%	— · — · — · 66
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	53%	-25.9%	-30.3%	+38.2%	3 · 78 · — · 66
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	53%	-15.8%	-25.3%	+0.8%	— · — · — · 66
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	51%	-22.2%	-30.9%	+1.8%	— · — · — · 64
$MADE2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	49%	-3.4%	-10.8%	+2.5%	— · — · — · 64
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	48%	-26.8%	-31.2%	+36.6%	3 · 78 · — · 64
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	48%	-20.2%	-29.1%	+4.5%	— · — · — · 63
$QI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	48%	-31.3%	-39.4%	+17.7%	63 · 35 · — · 62
$OTC2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	47%	+2.9%	-8.3%	+9.0%	— · — · — · 64
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	45%	-26.1%	-30.6%	+37.8%	3 · 78 · — · 63
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	43%	+0.1%	-6.1%	+13.5%	2 · 78 · — · 64
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	41%	+25.7%	-62.2%	+25.8%	— · — · — · 66
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	41%	+195%	-1.8%	+261%	7 · 49 · — · 60
$QI2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	39%	-35.2%	-42.9%	+13.6%	64 · 36 · — · 60
$QI2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	38%	-29.7%	-38.0%	+23.3%	46 · 36 · — · 60
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	36%	+15.8%	-65.2%	+15.8%	— · — · — · 64
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC	34%	-11.5%	-28.9%	+1.0%	— · — · — · 66
$牛来2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	32%	-5.2%	-6.0%	+1.4%	— · — · — · 64
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	32%	+159%	-21.5%	+217%	7 · 49 · — · 58
$PAID2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	31%	+6.1%	-6.1%	+21.2%	— · — · — · 57
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	31%	+205%	-7.4%	+274%	7 · 49 · — · 58
$OTC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	31%	-5.2%	-15.2%	+1.0%	— · — · — · 57
$PAID2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	30%	+12.1%	-3.6%	+24.4%	— · — · — · 57
$OTC2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	30%	-4.2%	-14.7%	+1.6%	— · — · — · 57
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	30%	-8.9%	-26.8%	+4.3%	— · — · — · 64
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	28%	-13.3%	-30.4%	+5.4%	— · — · — · 63

$FONE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
+1.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.6%
$OTC2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
+0.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.8%
$BUN2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
73%
24h return
-8.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.1%
$PAID2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
+12.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.8%
$PAID2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
+16.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.0%
$HMM2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
66%
24h return
-12.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.2%
$BUN2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
65%
24h return
-8.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.6%
$FONE2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-2.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.6%
$HMM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.1%
$PAID2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
63%
24h return
+16.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.3%
$牛来2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
-5.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.3%
$BUN2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
-8.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.3%
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
59%
24h return
-3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.8%
$MADE2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
56%
24h return
-2.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.6%
$MICHI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
54%
24h return
-1.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.5%
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
53%
24h return
-25.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.3%
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
53%
24h return
-15.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.3%
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
51%
24h return
-22.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.9%
$MADE2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
49%
24h return
-3.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.8%
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-31.2%
$BIKETYSON2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
-20.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-29.1%
$QI2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
-31.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.4%
$OTC2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
47%
24h return
+2.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.3%
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
45%
24h return
-26.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.6%
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
+0.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.1%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+25.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-62.2%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+195%
Max drawdown 24h
-1.8%
$QI2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-35.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.9%
$QI2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-29.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.0%
$TWEETCRAFT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
+15.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-65.2%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Similarity
34%
24h return
-11.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.9%
$牛来2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
-5.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.0%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
+159%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.5%
$PAID2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+6.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.1%
$CLAUDIA2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+205%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.4%
$OTC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
-5.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.2%
$PAID2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
+12.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.6%
$OTC2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-4.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.7%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-8.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.8%
$KNIGHTCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
28%
24h return
-13.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-30.4%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 18:44 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $HMM within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 7,048 resolved snapshots · 675 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.