Historical analogs

Similar setups to $OSBOOK

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 4,909 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-19.2%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-97.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

28%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-13 02:17 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-12

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 28% (95% CI 16–43%)

Median: -19.2%; CI -37.5% … -4.9%
Trimmed mean: -18.9%; 10% each side
Mean: -18.4%; σ 40.9%
Range: -96.7% … +110%

1 above +73.1% (max +110%)

p5: -93.0%
p10: -61.5%
p25: -41.1%
p50: -19.2%
p75: +2.8%
p90: +33.4%
p95: +38.0%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-13 02:17 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: —
Crowding: —
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 72
Price change 1h: -8.7%
Volume acceleration: +33.8%
Liquidity: $81.3K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$SI2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	89%	-38.1%	-42.8%	+10.6%	— · — · — · 71
$PONGO2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	88%	-4.9%	-5.0%	+9.0%	— · — · — · 73
$SI2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	87%	-39.8%	-50.4%	+0.4%	— · — · — · 73
$PUMPCAT2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	87%	-15.2%	-24.9%	+29.7%	— · — · — · 73
$尤栗2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	87%	-96.7%	-97.3%	0.0%	1 · 62 · 62 · 71
$SI2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	86%	-43.8%	-61.2%	+0.9%	— · — · — · 73
$PUMPCAT2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	86%	-13.8%	-19.5%	+39.0%	— · — · — · 73
$尤栗2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	84%	-92.9%	-93.1%	+7.6%	— · — · — · 73
$SI2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	84%	-60.5%	-61.4%	+5.0%	— · — · — · 72
$SI2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	83%	-33.1%	-44.7%	+12.0%	— · — · — · 74
$KLN2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	82%	-39.9%	-70.4%	+2.4%	— · — · — · 72
$KLN2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	82%	-37.0%	-69.1%	+6.7%	— · — · — · 73
$BULLISH2026-10-11 03:00 UTC	82%	+37.8%	-7.6%	+103%	3 · 81 · — · 68
$NORMIE2026-10-11 19:00 UTC	81%	+8.6%	-52.6%	+73.6%	— · — · — · 68
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	79%	-47.3%	-52.5%	+13.4%	— · — · — · 72
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 05:00 UTC	77%	-4.9%	-17.5%	+83.9%	— · — · — · 67
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	77%	-36.2%	-36.2%	+46.7%	— · — · — · 72
$DOPE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	77%	-35.2%	-63.1%	+106%	40 · 81 · — · 73
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	77%	-54.8%	-58.4%	+6.6%	— · — · — · 72
$NORMIE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	77%	+42.5%	0.0%	+250%	— · — · — · 73
$BULLISH2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	76%	-6.0%	-52.6%	+28.7%	66 · 73 · — · 68
$BULLISH2026-10-11 02:00 UTC	75%	+32.0%	-12.1%	+93.5%	40 · 81 · — · 66
$PONGO2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	75%	-15.9%	-20.7%	+10.4%	— · — · — · 74
$NORMIE2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	75%	-0.4%	-48.5%	+88.7%	— · — · — · 72
$NORMIE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	74%	+33.4%	-37.5%	+129%	— · — · — · 73
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	74%	-22.4%	-32.6%	+54.8%	— · — · — · 73
$DOPE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC	74%	-70.4%	-72.4%	+54.2%	— · — · — · 73
$JOBY2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	74%	-6.1%	-11.2%	+3.0%	— · — · — · 72
$SECRETFROG2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	74%	-40.6%	-48.2%	0.0%	— · — · — · 71
$SI2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	73%	-42.3%	-60.8%	0.0%	— · — · — · 73
$API2026-10-12 02:00 UTC	73%	+10.0%	-25.7%	+69.5%	— · — · — · 71
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	73%	+15.4%	0.0%	+30.3%	— · — · — · 73
$BULLISH2026-10-10 19:00 UTC	73%	+110%	-21.3%	+204%	— · — · — · 65
$NORMIE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC	72%	+33.6%	-26.9%	+167%	— · — · — · 73
$OMNI2026-10-11 04:00 UTC	72%	-29.2%	-44.3%	+9.4%	4 · 90 · — · 68
$OMNI2026-10-11 06:00 UTC	71%	-1.5%	-28.2%	+41.0%	4 · 90 · — · 67
$ALTAI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC	71%	-94.8%	-94.9%	+7.3%	— · — · — · 65
$SI2026-10-12 01:00 UTC	71%	-43.1%	-49.0%	+3.3%	— · — · — · 72
$BULLISH2026-10-11 20:00 UTC	71%	+7.1%	-49.0%	+38.4%	9 · 71 · — · 67
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 23:00 UTC	71%	+1.3%	-40.9%	+61.3%	— · — · — · 73

$SI2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
89%
24h return
-38.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.8%
$PONGO2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
88%
24h return
-4.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.0%
$SI2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-39.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-50.4%
$PUMPCAT2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-15.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-24.9%
$尤栗2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
87%
24h return
-96.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-97.3%
$SI2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-43.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-61.2%
$PUMPCAT2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
86%
24h return
-13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.5%
$尤栗2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-92.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-93.1%
$SI2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
84%
24h return
-60.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-61.4%
$SI2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
83%
24h return
-33.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.7%
$KLN2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-39.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-70.4%
$KLN2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
-37.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-69.1%
$BULLISH2026-10-11 03:00 UTC
Similarity
82%
24h return
+37.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-7.6%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 19:00 UTC
Similarity
81%
24h return
+8.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.6%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
79%
24h return
-47.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.5%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
-4.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.5%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-36.2%
$DOPE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
-35.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-63.1%
$SLOPCORE2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
-54.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-58.4%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
77%
24h return
+42.5%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$BULLISH2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
76%
24h return
-6.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.6%
$BULLISH2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
+32.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.1%
$PONGO2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.7%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-0.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.5%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
+33.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.5%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
-22.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.6%
$DOPE2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
-70.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-72.4%
$JOBY2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
-6.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.2%
$SECRETFROG2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
74%
24h return
-40.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.2%
$SI2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
73%
24h return
-42.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-60.8%
$API2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Similarity
73%
24h return
+10.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.7%
$MAMAOCITA2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
73%
24h return
+15.4%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$BULLISH2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Similarity
73%
24h return
+110%
Max drawdown 24h
-21.3%
$NORMIE2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
+33.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.9%
$OMNI2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Similarity
72%
24h return
-29.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.3%
$OMNI2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
-1.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-28.2%
$ALTAI2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
-94.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-94.9%
$SI2026-10-12 01:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
-43.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.0%
$BULLISH2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
+7.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.0%
$SLOPCANNON2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Similarity
71%
24h return
+1.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.9%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-13 02:17 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $OSBOOK within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 13,236 resolved snapshots · 4,909 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.