Historical analogs

Similar setups to $BULLISH

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 198 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-12.5%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-79.8%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

18%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 16:41 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 18% (95% CI 9–32%)

Median: -12.5%; CI -31.9% … -8.3%
Trimmed mean: -17.7%; 10% each side
Mean: -18.3%; σ 22.3%
Range: -70.5% … +31.8%

p5: -56.5%
p10: -43.4%
p25: -34.8%
p50: -12.5%
p75: -2.4%
p90: +10.4%
p95: +12.3%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 16:41 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 8
Crowding: 80
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 50
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: —
Liquidity: $133.1K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$STONKINU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	75%	-33.5%	-49.4%	+4.9%	6 · 81 · — · 48
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	64%	-6.8%	-23.1%	+7.2%	6 · 75 · — · 48
$URMOM2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	60%	+12.1%	-10.4%	+19.9%	3 · 71 · — · 48
$URMOM2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	60%	+10.6%	-9.2%	+21.4%	3 · 71 · — · 48
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	55%	-31.2%	-35.3%	+28.3%	3 · 78 · — · 56
$URMOM2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	53%	+10.4%	-11.3%	+18.6%	3 · 71 · — · 46
$URMOM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	53%	-24.6%	-32.3%	+17.5%	3 · 71 · — · 46
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	52%	-14.3%	-19.6%	+4.8%	2 · 78 · — · 56
$STONKINU2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	48%	-49.4%	-52.0%	+7.9%	7 · 68 · — · 45
$PRISM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	47%	-8.3%	-14.0%	+7.3%	3 · 88 · — · 53
$URMOM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	45%	-28.9%	-36.3%	+10.7%	3 · 80 · — · 43
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	45%	-12.5%	-14.3%	0.0%	11 · 84 · — · 43
$URMOM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	44%	-19.3%	-29.9%	+21.8%	3 · 71 · — · 44
$PRISM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	43%	-11.6%	-17.1%	+7.7%	3 · 88 · — · 46
$招财猫2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	43%	-2.8%	-3.3%	+0.4%	4 · 70 · — · 43
$RARI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	41%	-12.5%	-25.4%	+19.2%	2 · 78 · — · 42
$TM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	41%	-37.8%	-77.1%	0.0%	3 · 86 · — · 56
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	41%	+14.8%	0.0%	+63.4%	2 · 78 · — · 42
$BINF2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	41%	+31.8%	-4.7%	+74.1%	3 · 81 · — · 43
$TM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	39%	-5.9%	-63.4%	+25.9%	3 · 86 · — · 56
$PQC2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	38%	-32.8%	-55.2%	+14.5%	9 · 58 · — · 51
$PQC2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	37%	-37.8%	-55.9%	+11.7%	9 · 58 · — · 51
$PQC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	37%	-61.0%	-69.2%	0.0%	9 · 58 · — · 52
$PQC2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	37%	-56.3%	-64.8%	+2.0%	9 · 58 · — · 48
$PQC2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	37%	-35.2%	-61.6%	+0.6%	9 · 58 · — · 48
$PQC2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	37%	-70.5%	-73.3%	+4.0%	10 · 58 · — · 52
$TM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	36%	-42.7%	-79.8%	+16.4%	25 · 86 · — · 53
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	35%	-34.8%	-46.4%	+13.4%	7 · 78 · — · 41
$STONKINU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	34%	-34.7%	-50.4%	+2.9%	7 · 78 · — · 41
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	34%	-36.3%	-38.3%	+8.2%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	34%	-32.6%	-35.7%	+12.8%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$SAPLING2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	33%	-0.8%	-11.6%	+34.7%	8 · 65 · — · 46
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	32%	+2.9%	-4.7%	+3.0%	5 · 56 · — · 50
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	32%	-1.5%	-8.3%	0.0%	5 · 56 · — · 50
$PRISM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	32%	-12.1%	-17.5%	+7.2%	25 · 88 · — · 46
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	31%	+0.7%	-6.3%	+2.2%	5 · 56 · — · 52
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	30%	-10.7%	-26.3%	+2.8%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	29%	-0.4%	-6.6%	+1.2%	5 · 56 · — · 47
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	28%	-9.8%	-25.2%	+19.5%	2 · 78 · — · 40
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	28%	-7.4%	-20.9%	+26.4%	2 · 78 · — · 40

$STONKINU2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
75%
24h return
-33.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.4%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-6.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-23.1%
$URMOM2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
+12.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.4%
$URMOM2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
60%
24h return
+10.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.2%
$HEEHAW2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
55%
24h return
-31.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.3%
$URMOM2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
53%
24h return
+10.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.3%
$URMOM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
53%
24h return
-24.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.3%
$B-MONEY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
52%
24h return
-14.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.6%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
48%
24h return
-49.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.0%
$PRISM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
47%
24h return
-8.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.0%
$URMOM2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
45%
24h return
-28.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-36.3%
$PUMPOWEEN2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
45%
24h return
-12.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.3%
$URMOM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
-19.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-29.9%
$PRISM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
-11.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.1%
$招财猫2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
-2.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.3%
$RARI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
-12.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.4%
$TM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
-37.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-77.1%
$RARI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$BINF2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+31.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.7%
$TM2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-5.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-63.4%
$PQC2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
38%
24h return
-32.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.2%
$PQC2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-37.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-55.9%
$PQC2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-61.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-69.2%
$PQC2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-56.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-64.8%
$PQC2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-35.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-61.6%
$PQC2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
-70.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-73.3%
$TM2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
-42.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-79.8%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
-34.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.4%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
34%
24h return
-34.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-50.4%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
34%
24h return
-36.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.3%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
34%
24h return
-32.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.7%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
-0.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.6%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
+2.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.7%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
-1.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.3%
$PRISM2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
-12.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.5%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+0.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.3%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-10.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.3%
$HOTDOG2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
-0.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.6%
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
28%
24h return
-9.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.2%
$RARI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
28%
24h return
-7.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.9%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 16:41 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $BULLISH within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,649 resolved snapshots · 198 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.