Historical analogs

Similar setups to $JEANPHIL

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 236 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-2.3%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-52.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

45%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 17:43 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 45% (95% CI 31–60%)

Median: -2.3%; CI -18.5% … +13.4%
Trimmed mean: -3.2%; 10% each side
Mean: -2.7%; σ 25.6%
Range: -46.7% … +41.0%

p5: -36.5%
p10: -32.6%
p25: -28.0%
p50: -2.3%
p75: +16.2%
p90: +33.8%
p95: +37.1%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 17:43 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 11
Crowding: 51
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 34
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: —
Liquidity: $554.1K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$SI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	61%	+37.0%	-3.1%	+49.9%	13 · 45 · — · 39
$SI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	46%	+27.8%	0.0%	+43.2%	13 · 51 · — · 42
$PRIORS2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	46%	-7.6%	-14.8%	+13.4%	3 · 52 · — · 40
$BATON2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	44%	+9.7%	-13.9%	+19.6%	5 · 65 · — · 39
$PRIORS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC	42%	-2.1%	-9.7%	+20.2%	3 · 52 · — · 41
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	42%	+41.0%	0.0%	+56.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	41%	+18.8%	-0.2%	+32.7%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	41%	+3.8%	-14.2%	+14.2%	5 · 70 · — · 33
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	41%	-3.0%	-12.5%	+16.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	40%	-1.2%	-17.8%	+9.3%	5 · 70 · — · 36
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	40%	+19.7%	-5.3%	+32.5%	11 · 54 · — · 43
$PRIORS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	39%	-8.3%	-15.4%	+12.5%	4 · 64 · — · 39
$DARK2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	39%	-27.9%	-35.0%	+0.9%	8 · 42 · — · 28
$DARK2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	39%	-25.8%	-36.0%	+1.0%	8 · 42 · — · 28
$ORBIO2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	36%	-18.1%	-18.1%	+14.8%	6 · 58 · — · 42
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	36%	-26.8%	-41.5%	+14.9%	6 · 63 · — · 39
$SI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	35%	+38.9%	-2.4%	+50.9%	14 · 43 · — · 43
$SI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	35%	+33.5%	-6.2%	+45.1%	15 · 43 · — · 43
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	33%	-36.2%	-49.1%	+8.5%	8 · 63 · — · 40
$ORBIO2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	32%	-18.9%	-20.0%	+0.6%	28 · 48 · — · 40
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	30%	-29.9%	-42.6%	+15.4%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	30%	-29.3%	-38.9%	+22.9%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$DARK2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	30%	-28.3%	-32.2%	+5.3%	8 · 42 · — · 26
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	29%	+21.0%	-2.0%	+38.1%	30 · 47 · — · 41
$旺柴2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	27%	-2.6%	-17.0%	+10.8%	9 · 54 · — · 45
$CRAWL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	25%	-32.3%	-38.7%	+23.3%	8 · 49 · — · 44
$CRAWL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	25%	-31.7%	-40.4%	+20.0%	8 · 49 · — · 44
$SI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	24%	+36.6%	-0.5%	+54.0%	36 · 51 · — · 38
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	24%	+14.8%	-4.1%	+46.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	24%	+14.2%	0.0%	+47.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$ORBIO2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	22%	+11.8%	-0.2%	+39.1%	5 · 65 · — · 43
$DARK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	21%	-33.1%	-34.4%	+0.6%	6 · 50 · — · 24
$BATON2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	20%	+16.2%	-10.5%	+24.2%	5 · 65 · — · 44
$BATON2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	20%	+16.3%	-8.4%	+17.6%	5 · 65 · — · 44
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	20%	+13.4%	-8.8%	+27.6%	30 · 54 · — · 43
$BATON2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	19%	+13.8%	-11.3%	+23.2%	4 · 73 · — · 41
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	18%	-46.7%	-52.3%	0.0%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	18%	-42.9%	-44.8%	+0.9%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$DARK2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	16%	-32.6%	-34.1%	+0.9%	7 · 46 · — · 23
$ORBIO2026-10-10 16:00 UTC	14%	-11.0%	-11.0%	+10.4%	8 · 45 · — · 46

$SI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
61%
24h return
+37.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.1%
$SI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
+27.8%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
46%
24h return
-7.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.8%
$BATON2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
44%
24h return
+9.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.9%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
-2.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-9.7%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
42%
24h return
+41.0%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+18.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.2%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
+3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.2%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
41%
24h return
-3.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.5%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-1.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.8%
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
+19.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.3%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-8.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.4%
$DARK2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-27.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.0%
$DARK2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
39%
24h return
-25.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-36.0%
$ORBIO2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
-18.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.1%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
36%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.5%
$SI2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
+38.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.4%
$SI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
35%
24h return
+33.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-6.2%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
33%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.1%
$ORBIO2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
-18.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-20.0%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-29.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.6%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-29.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.9%
$DARK2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
30%
24h return
-28.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.2%
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
+21.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-2.0%
$旺柴2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
27%
24h return
-2.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.0%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
-32.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.7%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
-31.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.4%
$SI2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
24%
24h return
+36.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.5%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
24%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.1%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
24%
24h return
+14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$ORBIO2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
22%
24h return
+11.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.2%
$DARK2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
21%
24h return
-33.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-34.4%
$BATON2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
20%
24h return
+16.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.5%
$BATON2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
20%
24h return
+16.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.4%
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
20%
24h return
+13.4%
Max drawdown 24h
-8.8%
$BATON2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
19%
24h return
+13.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.3%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
18%
24h return
-46.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.3%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
18%
24h return
-42.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.8%
$DARK2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
16%
24h return
-32.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-34.1%
$ORBIO2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Similarity
14%
24h return
-11.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-11.0%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 17:43 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $JEANPHIL within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,848 resolved snapshots · 236 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.