Historical analogs

Similar setups to $AGENCY

Past moments, on any token in this dataset, whose scores and market context looked most like this token's latest snapshot — and what happened in the 24 hours after. Statistical context, not a promise.

Live

Similar setups

of 160 eligible snapshots

Median 24h

-17.9%

follow-through after the setup

Worst 24h drawdown

-52.3%

deepest intraday fall

Positive after 24h

30%

N = 40

ConfidenceHIGH40 similar setups · 24h outcomes resolved before 2026-10-11 15:50 UTC · 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-10

24h return after similar setups

N = 40 · Positive after 24h 30% (95% CI 18–45%)

Median: -17.9%; CI -28.8% … -5.5%
Trimmed mean: -14.9%; 10% each side
Mean: -13.5%; σ 24.8%
Range: -49.5% … +41.0%

p5: -45.6%
p10: -44.4%
p25: -31.9%
p50: -17.9%
p75: +5.0%
p90: +18.9%
p95: +28.2%

This setup now

Snapshot 2026-10-11 15:50 UTC — the vector being matched

Momentum: 10
Crowding: 58
Early Quality: —
Narrative Velocity: 35
Price change 1h: —
Volume acceleration: —
Liquidity: $262.5K

Features that are missing right now (for example no market data) are left out of the distance rather than guessed; 4 of 7 features were comparable.

Matched historical setups

Setup	Similarity	24h return	Max drawdown 24h	Max return 24h	Mom · Crowd · EQ · Narr
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	64%	-26.8%	-41.5%	+14.9%	6 · 63 · — · 39
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	58%	-36.2%	-49.1%	+8.5%	8 · 63 · — · 40
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	43%	+15.9%	-19.4%	+36.5%	3 · 62 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	40%	-42.9%	-44.8%	+0.9%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	40%	-46.7%	-52.3%	0.0%	7 · 78 · — · 36
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	37%	+14.8%	-4.1%	+46.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	37%	+14.2%	0.0%	+47.1%	9 · 61 · — · 43
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	32%	-29.9%	-42.6%	+15.4%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	32%	-29.3%	-38.9%	+22.9%	8 · 49 · — · 43
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	31%	-23.9%	-37.0%	+10.5%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	31%	-26.6%	-39.7%	0.0%	7 · 81 · — · 38
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	31%	+41.0%	0.0%	+56.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$DARK2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	29%	-25.8%	-36.0%	+1.0%	8 · 42 · — · 28
$DARK2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	29%	-27.9%	-35.0%	+0.9%	8 · 42 · — · 28
$BATON2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	29%	+9.7%	-13.9%	+19.6%	5 · 65 · — · 39
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	29%	+18.8%	-0.2%	+32.7%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	29%	-3.0%	-12.5%	+16.4%	5 · 70 · — · 35
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	28%	-1.2%	-17.8%	+9.3%	5 · 70 · — · 36
$PRIORS2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	27%	+3.8%	-14.2%	+14.2%	5 · 70 · — · 33
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	26%	+19.7%	-5.3%	+32.5%	11 · 54 · — · 43
$SI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	25%	+37.0%	-3.1%	+49.9%	13 · 45 · — · 39
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	25%	-45.0%	-46.6%	+5.6%	6 · 83 · — · 37
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	25%	-44.3%	-49.7%	+5.1%	6 · 83 · — · 33
$CRAWL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	25%	-31.7%	-40.4%	+20.0%	8 · 49 · — · 44
$CRAWL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	25%	-32.3%	-38.7%	+23.3%	8 · 49 · — · 44
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	23%	-45.5%	-46.0%	+15.0%	28 · 63 · — · 42
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	22%	-8.1%	-18.2%	+30.7%	2 · 78 · — · 37
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	20%	-11.9%	-31.4%	+3.3%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	20%	-10.7%	-26.3%	+2.8%	7 · 81 · — · 41
$SI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC	19%	+27.8%	0.0%	+43.2%	13 · 51 · — · 42
$UDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	18%	-7.8%	-10.3%	+2.2%	8 · 83 · — · 36
$DARK2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	17%	-28.3%	-32.2%	+5.3%	8 · 42 · — · 26
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC	15%	-32.6%	-35.7%	+12.8%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	15%	-36.3%	-38.3%	+8.2%	7 · 81 · — · 42
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	15%	-31.0%	-48.1%	+12.6%	7 · 78 · — · 38
$STONKINU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC	15%	-49.5%	-51.1%	+3.3%	7 · 78 · — · 38
$AI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	15%	+8.5%	-0.9%	+16.0%	10 · 37 · — · 34
$AI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC	15%	+3.8%	-5.8%	+10.3%	10 · 37 · — · 36
$PRIORS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC	15%	-8.3%	-15.4%	+12.5%	4 · 64 · — · 39
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC	14%	-9.8%	-25.2%	+19.5%	2 · 78 · — · 40

$HOTBOT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
64%
24h return
-26.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-41.5%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
58%
24h return
-36.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.1%
$BAGSPAY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
43%
24h return
+15.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-19.4%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-42.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-44.8%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
40%
24h return
-46.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-52.3%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
+14.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-4.1%
$SAPLING2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
37%
24h return
+14.2%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
-29.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-42.6%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
32%
24h return
-29.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.9%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
-23.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-37.0%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
-26.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-39.7%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
31%
24h return
+41.0%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$DARK2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
-25.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-36.0%
$DARK2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
-27.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.0%
$BATON2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
+9.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-13.9%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
+18.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.2%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
29%
24h return
-3.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-12.5%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
28%
24h return
-1.2%
Max drawdown 24h
-17.8%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
27%
24h return
+3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-14.2%
$JEANPHIL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
26%
24h return
+19.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.3%
$SI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
+37.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-3.1%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
-45.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.6%
$AGENCY2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
-44.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-49.7%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
-31.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-40.4%
$CRAWL2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
25%
24h return
-32.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.7%
$HOTBOT2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
23%
24h return
-45.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-46.0%
$RARI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
22%
24h return
-8.1%
Max drawdown 24h
-18.2%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
20%
24h return
-11.9%
Max drawdown 24h
-31.4%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
20%
24h return
-10.7%
Max drawdown 24h
-26.3%
$SI2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Similarity
19%
24h return
+27.8%
Max drawdown 24h
0.0%
$UDR2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
18%
24h return
-7.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-10.3%
$DARK2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
17%
24h return
-28.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-32.2%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
-32.6%
Max drawdown 24h
-35.7%
$SWORDCAT2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
-36.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-38.3%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
-31.0%
Max drawdown 24h
-48.1%
$STONKINU2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
-49.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-51.1%
$AI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
+8.5%
Max drawdown 24h
-0.9%
$AI2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
+3.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-5.8%
$PRIORS2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Similarity
15%
24h return
-8.3%
Max drawdown 24h
-15.4%
$RARI2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Similarity
14%
24h return
-9.8%
Max drawdown 24h
-25.2%

Method & point-in-time rules

analog-v1.0

Distance: Euclidean over z-scored features (Momentum, Crowding, Early Quality, Narrative Velocity, Price change 1h, Volume acceleration, Liquidity), z-scored across the eligible candidate set; nearest 40 within a distance of 2.5. Similarity = 1 − distance / 2.5.
Candidates are hourly score snapshots whose 24h outcome had resolved strictly before this snapshot (2026-10-11 15:50 UTC): nothing that happened afterwards is used. Snapshots of $AGENCY within ±24h are excluded.
Considered 6,452 resolved snapshots · 160 had every comparable feature · 0 excluded as the same token nearby · 0 rejected as not yet resolved.
Dead tokens stay in the candidate set, so outcomes include collapses (survivorship-safe). Returns are measured from the first price at or after each snapshot.

FomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.