Social leading price on $JEANPHIL
Social activity is rising faster than price and volume.
- Fired
- 2026-10-10 18:43 UTC · 20h ago
- Ended
- 2026-10-10 18:46 UTC
- Rule
- social_leading_price@1.0
- Strength
- 0.45
Why it fired
Neutral facts at fire time
- divergence +100 (early social)
- social activity z +6.0 with price z +0.4
- 6 theses in the last hour
- momentum 89
Scores and features as of 2026-10-10 18:43 UTC (features-v1.0) — only data available at that time.
Conditions
Each threshold of the versioned rule vs the actual value when it fired
- Divergence
- Threshold
- >= +65
- Actual at fire
- +100
- Passed
- yes
- Divergence state is EARLY_SOCIAL
- Threshold
- Divergence state is EARLY_SOCIAL
- Actual at fire
- matched
- Passed
- yes
- Social activity z
- Threshold
- >= 5
- Actual at fire
- 6
- Passed
- yes
- Theses 1h
- Threshold
- >= 6
- Actual at fire
- 6
- Passed
- yes
- Momentum
- Threshold
- > 80
- Actual at fire
- 89
- Passed
- yes
Historical analogs
Earlier firings of social_leading_price@1.0 on any token in this dataset whose 24h outcome had resolved before this one fired. Statistical context, not a promise.
24h return after earlier firings
N = 2 · Positive after 24h 50% (95% CI 9–91%)
- Median
- +8.2%
- CI -4.6% … +21.1%
- Trimmed mean
- +8.2%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- +8.2%
- σ 18.1%
- Range
- -4.6% … +21.1%
- p5
- -3.3%
- p10
- -2.0%
- p25
- +1.8%
- p50
- +8.2%
- p75
- +14.7%
- p90
- +18.5%
- p95
- +19.8%
This firing, 24h later
Pending
The 24h outcome resolves at 2026-10-11 18:43 UTC. Until then nothing about what happened next is shown.
Previous firings on $JEANPHIL
Same rule, same token, before this firing
This is the first time social leading price fired on $JEANPHIL in this dataset.
Rule social_leading_price@1.0
Social leading price
Social activity is rising faster than price and volume. Fires when Divergence ≥ 65 AND Divergence state is EARLY_SOCIAL AND Social activity z ≥ 5 AND Theses 1h ≥ 6 AND Momentum > 80.
Inputs
- Divergence — Divergence ≥ 65.
- Divergence state is EARLY_SOCIAL — Divergence state is EARLY_SOCIAL.
- Social activity z — Social activity z ≥ 5.
- Theses 1h — Theses 1h ≥ 6.
- Momentum — Momentum > 80.
Limitations
- Fomo activity is a sample of social attention; a signal describes what the network is doing, not what price will do.
- Signals are statistical context, not a promise — historical analog statistics are attached at fire time with their sample size.
- Needs market data; tokens without price history never fire it.
- Requires at least 6 theses in the hour, so a quiet token's single post cannot read as social activity leading.
Fires or does not fire. Strength 0–1 = average margin beyond each threshold (0 = just passing, 1 = far beyond). A signal inherits the confidence of the scores it reads (shown on each score). At fire time it carries historical analog statistics — earlier firings of the same rule whose 24h outcome had resolved — with N, median 24h return, worst 24h drawdown and a confidence level (N < 10 LOW, < 30 MEDIUM, else HIGH).
All signal definitionsFomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.