False breakout risk on $TM
A spike in activity with weak breadth and low historical quality — similar setups often faded.
- Fired
- 2026-10-10 12:30 UTC · 1d ago
- Ended
- 2026-10-10 13:30 UTC
- Rule
- false_breakout_risk@1.0
- Strength
- 0.44
Why it fired
Neutral facts at fire time
- thesis velocity +398%
- crowding high (86)
- no early-author track record
Scores and features as of 2026-10-10 12:30 UTC (features-v1.0) — only data available at that time.
Conditions
Each threshold of the versioned rule vs the actual value when it fired
- Thesis velocity 1h
- Threshold
- > +350%
- Actual at fire
- +397.6%
- Passed
- yes
- Crowding
- Threshold
- > 70
- Actual at fire
- 86
- Passed
- yes
- Early Quality (or unknown)
- Threshold
- < 35
- Actual at fire
- —
- Passed
- yes
Historical analogs
Earlier firings of false_breakout_risk@1.0 on any token in this dataset whose 24h outcome had resolved before this one fired. Statistical context, not a promise.
24h return after earlier firings
N = 25 · Positive after 24h 44% (95% CI 27–63%)
- Median
- -6.5%
- CI -14.8% … +5.4%
- Trimmed mean
- -3.2%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- +0.3%
- σ 27.8%
- Range
- -34.7% … +96.1%
1 above +57.4% (max +96.1%)
- p5
- -28.0%
- p10
- -26.3%
- p25
- -18.0%
- p50
- -6.5%
- p75
- +7.8%
- p90
- +29.9%
- p95
- +39.5%
This firing, 24h later
Resolved outcome (measured from the first price at or after the firing)
Previous firings on $TM
Same rule, same token, before this firing
This is the first time false breakout risk fired on $TM in this dataset.
Rule false_breakout_risk@1.0
False breakout risk
A spike in activity with weak breadth and low historical quality — similar setups often faded. Fires when Thesis velocity 1h > 3.5 AND Crowding > 70 AND Early Quality (or unknown) < 35 (or unknown).
Inputs
- Thesis velocity 1h — Thesis velocity 1h > 3.5.
- Crowding — Crowding > 70.
- Early Quality (or unknown) — Early Quality (or unknown) < 35 (or unknown).
Limitations
- Fomo activity is a sample of social attention; a signal describes what the network is doing, not what price will do.
- Signals are statistical context, not a promise — historical analog statistics are attached at fire time with their sample size.
- A caution state built from activity shape; similar setups have often faded, but not always.
Fires or does not fire. Strength 0–1 = average margin beyond each threshold (0 = just passing, 1 = far beyond). A signal inherits the confidence of the scores it reads (shown on each score). At fire time it carries historical analog statistics — earlier firings of the same rule whose 24h outcome had resolved — with N, median 24h return, worst 24h drawdown and a confidence level (N < 10 LOW, < 30 MEDIUM, else HIGH).
All signal definitionsFomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.