Crowding risk on $SWORDCAT
Attention is concentrated among a small number of accounts.
- Fired
- 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC · 2d ago
- Ended
- 2026-10-09 13:00 UTC
- Rule
- crowding_risk@1.0
- Strength
- 0.15
Why it fired
Neutral facts at fire time
- crowding high (81)
- top author wrote 53% of 24h theses
- 1 account wrote half of 15 theses
Scores and features as of 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC (features-v1.0) — only data available at that time.
Conditions
Each threshold of the versioned rule vs the actual value when it fired
- Crowding
- Threshold
- > 75
- Actual at fire
- 81
- Passed
- yes
- Theses 24h
- Threshold
- >= 15
- Actual at fire
- 15
- Passed
- yes
Historical analogs
Earlier firings of crowding_risk@1.0 on any token in this dataset whose 24h outcome had resolved before this one fired. Statistical context, not a promise.
No resolved analogs yet
This firing, 24h later
Resolved outcome (measured from the first price at or after the firing)
Previous firings on $SWORDCAT
Same rule, same token, before this firing
This is the first time crowding risk fired on $SWORDCAT in this dataset.
Rule crowding_risk@1.0
Crowding risk
Attention is concentrated among a small number of accounts. Fires when Crowding > 75 AND Theses 24h ≥ 15.
Inputs
- Crowding — Crowding > 75.
- Theses 24h — Theses 24h ≥ 15.
Limitations
- Fomo activity is a sample of social attention; a signal describes what the network is doing, not what price will do.
- Signals are statistical context, not a promise — historical analog statistics are attached at fire time with their sample size.
- A caution state: it describes concentration of attention, not a forecast.
Fires or does not fire. Strength 0–1 = average margin beyond each threshold (0 = just passing, 1 = far beyond). A signal inherits the confidence of the scores it reads (shown on each score). At fire time it carries historical analog statistics — earlier firings of the same rule whose 24h outcome had resolved — with N, median 24h return, worst 24h drawdown and a confidence level (N < 10 LOW, < 30 MEDIUM, else HIGH).
All signal definitionsFomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.