Crowding risk on $PUMPOWEEN
Attention is concentrated among a small number of accounts.
- Fired
- 2026-10-11 01:08 UTC · 15h ago
- Ended
- 2026-10-11 03:40 UTC
- Rule
- crowding_risk@1.0
- Strength
- 0.32
Why it fired
Neutral facts at fire time
- crowding high (86)
- top author wrote 68% of 24h theses
- 1 account wrote half of 19 theses
Scores and features as of 2026-10-11 01:08 UTC (features-v1.0) — only data available at that time.
Conditions
Each threshold of the versioned rule vs the actual value when it fired
- Crowding
- Threshold
- > 75
- Actual at fire
- 86
- Passed
- yes
- Theses 24h
- Threshold
- >= 15
- Actual at fire
- 19
- Passed
- yes
Historical analogs
Earlier firings of crowding_risk@1.0 on any token in this dataset whose 24h outcome had resolved before this one fired. Statistical context, not a promise.
24h return after earlier firings
N = 10 · Positive after 24h 10% (95% CI 2–40%)
- Median
- -11.0%
- CI -19.0% … -3.5%
- Trimmed mean
- -12.3%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- -13.3%
- σ 15.1%
- Range
- -46.0% … +10.9%
1 below -31.0% (min -46.0%)
- p5
- -35.8%
- p10
- -25.7%
- p25
- -18.8%
- p50
- -11.0%
- p75
- -5.0%
- p90
- -1.6%
- p95
- +4.6%
This firing, 24h later
Pending
The 24h outcome resolves at 2026-10-12 01:08 UTC. Until then nothing about what happened next is shown.
Previous firings on $PUMPOWEEN
Same rule, same token, before this firing
- 2026-10-10 17:08 UTC
- Ended
- 2026-10-10 23:08
- 24h after
- pending / no data
- 2026-10-10 11:30 UTC
- Ended
- 2026-10-10 17:30
- 24h after
- -13.6%
- 2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
- Ended
- 2026-10-10 09:30
- 24h after
- -13.1%
- 2026-10-09 19:30 UTC
- Ended
- 2026-10-10 01:30
- 24h after
- -3.0%
- 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC
- Ended
- 2026-10-09 17:30
- 24h after
- -3.9%
- 2026-10-09 03:30 UTC
- Ended
- 2026-10-09 09:30
- 24h after
- -9.0%
Rule crowding_risk@1.0
Crowding risk
Attention is concentrated among a small number of accounts. Fires when Crowding > 75 AND Theses 24h ≥ 15.
Inputs
- Crowding — Crowding > 75.
- Theses 24h — Theses 24h ≥ 15.
Limitations
- Fomo activity is a sample of social attention; a signal describes what the network is doing, not what price will do.
- Signals are statistical context, not a promise — historical analog statistics are attached at fire time with their sample size.
- A caution state: it describes concentration of attention, not a forecast.
Fires or does not fire. Strength 0–1 = average margin beyond each threshold (0 = just passing, 1 = far beyond). A signal inherits the confidence of the scores it reads (shown on each score). At fire time it carries historical analog statistics — earlier firings of the same rule whose 24h outcome had resolved — with N, median 24h return, worst 24h drawdown and a confidence level (N < 10 LOW, < 30 MEDIUM, else HIGH).
All signal definitionsFomoQuant provides analytics and historical/statistical context, not financial advice or guaranteed predictions.