@ty477
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 1d ago8 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 3 resolved calls
No score is shown: 3 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~12 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 3 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~12 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 3 · Positive after 24h 100% (95% CI 44–100%)
- Median
- +13.0%
- CI +11.4% … +15.7%
- Trimmed mean
- +13.4%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- +13.4%
- σ 2.1%
- Range
- +11.4% … +15.7%
- p5
- +11.6%
- p10
- +11.8%
- p25
- +12.2%
- p50
- +13.0%
- p75
- +14.3%
- p90
- +15.1%
- p95
- +15.4%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (3)
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $CATEcatecoin 1 billion
- Posted
- 1d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -5.1%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEgreat entry on the coin of the cycle
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -3.6%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEgenerational entry, get in before we blast to 200m
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -9.9%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEthey will buy back higher
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +9.8%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEdon’t lose sight of the vision, cate is free here
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +3.2%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEdon’t miss your chance to buy cate at these levels
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +11.4%
- Max return
- +14.7%
- Drawdown
- -7.3%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
- $CATEevery major coin is down right now, the only difference between us and them is they don’t have 139,500 holders with the same vision
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +15.7%
- Max return
- +21.5%
- Drawdown
- -1.7%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
- $CATElast month when the market was down we went to 25m-30m. volume came back to the market and we went straight to 100m +. take advantage of the low price and position accordingly. see you at 200m in the coming weeks.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +13.0%
- Max return
- +17.4%
- Drawdown
- -5.0%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
Cohorts
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