@sonder_crypto
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 2h ago5 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 1 resolved call
No score is shown: 1 resolved call so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~14 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 1 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~14 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 1 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–79%)
- Median
- -21.4%
- Trimmed mean
- -21.4%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- -21.4%
- Range
- -21.4% … -21.4%
- p5
- -21.4%
- p10
- -21.4%
- p25
- -21.4%
- p50
- -21.4%
- p75
- -21.4%
- p90
- -21.4%
- p95
- -21.4%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $CLAUSNormal consolidation after going from 0 to $20M Chop a bit more and then up Claus mode
- Posted
- 2h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CLAUSNice dip yall 🙏
- Posted
- 23h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CLAUSCoins that go from zero to $20M need time to consolidate and form a new bottom after the first leg. - Ceiling is still high - Thesis remains the same - Literally nothing has changed Scenic route mode None of the genny runners went to 100M without a few shakeouts along the way 0 to 1 moment
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +29.7%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CLAUSWord of advice for people that haven't hit a runner before (0 > $100M+) - Build your own conviction. You can read what others say but don’t let it drive your trade. Someone else buying or selling shouldn’t shake you. - Stress test that conviction. Define your invalidation. Know exactly why you are exiting. Can be catalyst or price driven. - Check the charts less. Every time you look at the chart or read someone's thesis, your own trading decisions are influenced. If you start panicking cuz other people panic, that's how you sell a local bottom. Mark your levels, set alerts, and stop watching every candle. - Use every trade to study your emotions. Do you panic on every dip? Be hyper aware of what affects your execution.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -24.2%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CLAUSPanic selling Claus is bad for your wealth. The octopus remembers
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- -21.4%
- Max return
- +0.5%
- Drawdown
- -52.3%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.