User quant profile

@sigh

First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 15h ago3 theses on 1 token in 7d

LiveDelayed · scores 51s agoPublic Fomo profile

Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.

Research score

0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based

—/ 100

Insufficient dataToo few resolved calls to say anything reliable.

Based on 1 resolved call

No score is shown: 1 resolved call so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls; this account has posted 3 theses so far.

Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.

research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026

Research score history

Point-in-time snapshots · 1 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient

No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved.

Author metrics

Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.

Theses

N = 3 posted

Theses posted up to the snapshot.

Hit rate

100%

95% CI 21–100% · N = 1

Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.

Median lead time

27.8h

N = 1 major moves

Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.

False positive rate

N = 1

No major move and a negative 3-day return.

Median drawdown after call

-18.8%

N = 1

Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.

Consistency

—

N = 1

Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.

Outcome volatility

—

N = 1

Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.

Sample size

resolved · 2 pending in view

Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.

Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call

N = 1 · Positive after 24h 100% (95% CI 21–100%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal

Median: +3.2%
Trimmed mean: +3.2%; 10% each side
Mean: +3.2%
Range: +3.2% … +3.2%

p5: +3.2%
p10: +3.2%
p25: +3.2%
p50: +3.2%
p75: +3.2%
p90: +3.2%
p95: +3.2%

Sector specialization

Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative

No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.

Not enough samples in other sectors: AI Agents (1)

Recent calls

Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.

Token	Posted	Status	24h	Max return	Drawdown	Lead time
$ORBIOMore capital means... more legitimacy, more distribution, more hiring, more speed, more staying power. This is why we bet on doxxed devs with a track record - they're going to stick around, the product will continue getting better, more users will come, subsequent rounds will be raised. Institutional investors also HAVE to market buy tokens if they want it.	15h ago	Pending	—	—	—	—
$ORBIOFrom 0 to $1.2m seed round in a month, yeah this is the chosen one	1d ago	Pending	-24.4%	—	—	—
$ORBIOmore watches, more money, more bitches, more power. more inference.	3d ago	Resolved	+3.2%	+66.1%	-18.8%	27.8h

$ORBIOMore capital means... more legitimacy, more distribution, more hiring, more speed, more staying power. This is why we bet on doxxed devs with a track record - they're going to stick around, the product will continue getting better, more users will come, subsequent rounds will be raised. Institutional investors also HAVE to market buy tokens if they want it.
Posted
15h ago
Status
Pending
24h
—
Max return
—
Drawdown
—
Lead time
—
$ORBIOFrom 0 to $1.2m seed round in a month, yeah this is the chosen one
Posted
1d ago
Status
Pending
24h
-24.4%
Max return
—
Drawdown
—
Lead time
—
$ORBIOmore watches, more money, more bitches, more power. more inference.
Posted
3d ago
Status
Resolved
24h
+3.2%
Max return
+66.1%
Drawdown
-18.8%
Lead time
27.8h

Cohorts

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