@risktakr_
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 2h ago15 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 2 resolved calls
No score is shown: 2 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~12 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 2 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~12 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 2 · Positive after 24h 100% (95% CI 34–100%)
- Median
- +14.2%
- CI +12.6% … +15.9%
- Trimmed mean
- +14.2%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- +14.2%
- σ 2.4%
- Range
- +12.6% … +15.9%
- p5
- +12.7%
- p10
- +12.9%
- p25
- +13.4%
- p50
- +14.2%
- p75
- +15.1%
- p90
- +15.6%
- p95
- +15.8%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (2)
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $CATEHolder count looking strong, we will see the end of the tunnel very soon. When that happens it’ll be the biggest move we’ve seen
- Posted
- 2h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATE140k holders currently on this bloody chart, know what you hold
- Posted
- 11h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATESend this so I can buy a 5090
- Posted
- 13h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATECharts priming.
- Posted
- 15h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEPreach hubba, this is where the community shows up
- Posted
- 19h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEPoorgoat sending a bag worker $ isn’t him selling, just saying whatever
- Posted
- 21h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEAnother day feeling bullish
- Posted
- 23h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEI feel you milly I went from like 29 to 13. Most of us normies have already made it this far and are still in blessed positions regardless of what the chart is looking like. I’m just remaining positive and greatful that I’m even able to be in this position, same for when I was in the negatives. Looking ahead and being confident in this coins growth makes it easy to watch thousands burn
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -2.6%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEMulti billions on the way, project flip DOGE
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -7.5%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATELearn whats happens when a coin with a great narrative floods its sellers out.
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -8.3%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEEveryone coming back to $CATE, zero reason to sell.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +9.0%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEPattern recognition. This chart is priming for something big
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +10.3%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEWhen the chart gets harder to stare at that’s how you know it’s priming for a big move
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +4.9%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEIf you’re thinking of selling lmk so I can buy lower
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +12.6%
- Max return
- +18.6%
- Drawdown
- -4.1%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
- $CATECasuals leaving, holders having conviction. The cycle continues
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +15.9%
- Max return
- +17.6%
- Drawdown
- -4.9%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.