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Fomo activity delayed · Last update: 1h ago · Market data delayed · Last update: 2h ago — affected numbers are dimmed and shown as of their last update.

User quant profile

@rarris

First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 3h ago10 theses on 1 token in 7d

LiveDelayed · scores 1m agoPublic Fomo profile

Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.

Research score

0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based

—/ 100
Confidence: Insufficient dataToo few resolved calls to say anything reliable.

Based on 1 resolved call

No score is shown: 1 resolved call so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~13 Oct.

Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.

research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026

Research score history

Point-in-time snapshots · 1 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient

No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~13 Oct).

Author metrics

Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.

Theses
10
N = 10 posted

Theses posted up to the snapshot.

Hit rate
0%
95% CI 0–79% · N = 1

Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.

Median lead time
—
N = 0 major moves

Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.

False positive rate
0%
N = 1

No major move and a negative 3-day return.

Median drawdown after call
-11.2%
N = 1

Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.

Consistency
—
N = 1

Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.

Outcome volatility
—
N = 1

Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.

Sample size
1
resolved · 9 pending in view

Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.

Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call

N = 1 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–79%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-5.2%
Trimmed mean
-5.2%
10% each side
Mean
-5.2%
Range
-5.2% … -5.2%
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call histogram1 samples in 1 bins from -5.2% to -5.2%.median-5.2%-5.2%
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call box plotMedian -5.2%, interquartile range -5.2% to -5.2%, whiskers -5.2% to -5.2%, 0 outliers (min -5.2%, max -5.2%).-5.2%-5.2%
p5
-5.2%
p10
-5.2%
p25
-5.2%
p50
-5.2%
p75
-5.2%
p90
-5.2%
p95
-5.2%

Sector specialization

Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative

No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.

Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (1)

Recent calls

Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.

  • $BASECATSellers running outta coins :)
    Posted
    3h ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    —
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATHERE WE GO
    Posted
    16h ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    —
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATCoinbase wallet is led by cobie btw
    Posted
    19h ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    —
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATCoinbase wallet adding us to their watchlist
    Posted
    24h ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    —
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATI’ve been buying this zone
    Posted
    1d ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    +17.6%
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATThis will melt faces on the next leg
    Posted
    1d ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    +17.4%
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATNFTs Launchpad and Plushies coming soon!
    Posted
    2d ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    +27.9%
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATADD the cat and/or the blue hard hat to your PFP on Twitter/X/Fomo
    Posted
    2d ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    —
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECATNotice how the entire market is down and we are holding strong? What happens when the market is thriving? This will be legendary
    Posted
    3d ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    -5.8%
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $BASECAT#1 B20 token on Base https://x.com/basecatonbase/status/2108192481921933528?s=46&t=mWfAJr74rbsgNYbRXlZn7g
    Posted
    3d ago
    Status
    Resolved
    24h
    -5.2%
    Max return
    +21.5%
    Drawdown
    -11.2%
    Lead time
    no +25% move

Cohorts

Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.

Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.