@pollak
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 2d ago6 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 1 resolved call
No score is shown: 1 resolved call so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~12 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 1 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~12 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 1 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–79%)
- Median
- -10.1%
- Trimmed mean
- -10.1%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- -10.1%
- Range
- -10.1% … -10.1%
- p5
- -10.1%
- p10
- -10.1%
- p25
- -10.1%
- p50
- -10.1%
- p75
- -10.1%
- p90
- -10.1%
- p95
- -10.1%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Not enough samples in other sectors: AI Agents (1), Meme (1), Tokenized Stocks (1)
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $AI#1 Most Wanted
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +2.3%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $AIThe funniest thing in the world is $AI becoming the largest holder of NVDA after Trump branded the name itself the enemy. He can rename the word. When we own the position, he and his whole cuck circle have to acknowledge us and we’ll get the last laugh. Fill the wick. Board sit.
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +4.8%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $AIhttps://x.com/blknoiz06/status/2108380342608712030?s=46
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +16.7%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $AIBuying $AI pays the fee in $NVDA. Most of that stock goes into the vault and stays there. Selling $AI pays the fee in $AI. Half gets burned, half gets locked and never comes back to market. Either side of the trade stacks NVDA or shrinks supply.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -1.5%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $AITalking about it going to 1 billion market cap just to panic sell sub 100 million is as soft as it gets. Why preach diamond hands and hype a project if you're going to fold when you see a red candle.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +1.1%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $AIi love fomo because u can see the idiots who panic sell 😂
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- -10.1%
- Max return
- +9.8%
- Drawdown
- -14.8%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.