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Fomo activity delayed · Last update: 3h ago · Market data delayed · Last update: 3h ago — affected numbers are dimmed and shown as of their last update.

User quant profile

@polarbull

First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 3d ago1 thesis on 1 token in 7d

LiveDelayed · scores 2m agoPublic Fomo profile

Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.

Research score

0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based

—/ 100
Confidence: Insufficient dataToo few resolved calls to say anything reliable.

Based on 1 resolved call

No score is shown: 1 resolved call so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls; this account has posted 1 thesis so far.

Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.

research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026

Research score history

Point-in-time snapshots · 1 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient

No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved.

Author metrics

Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.

Theses
1
N = 1 posted

Theses posted up to the snapshot.

Hit rate
0%
95% CI 0–79% · N = 1

Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.

Median lead time
—
N = 0 major moves

Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.

False positive rate
0%
N = 1

No major move and a negative 3-day return.

Median drawdown after call
-7.8%
N = 1

Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.

Consistency
—
N = 1

Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.

Outcome volatility
—
N = 1

Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.

Sample size
1
resolved · 0 pending in view

Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.

Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call

N = 1 · Positive after 24h 100% (95% CI 21–100%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
+12.8%
Trimmed mean
+12.8%
10% each side
Mean
+12.8%
Range
+12.8% … +12.8%
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call histogram1 samples in 1 bins from +12.8% to +12.8%.median+12.8%+12.8%
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call box plotMedian +12.8%, interquartile range +12.8% to +12.8%, whiskers +12.8% to +12.8%, 0 outliers (min +12.8%, max +12.8%).+12.8%+12.8%
p5
+12.8%
p10
+12.8%
p25
+12.8%
p50
+12.8%
p75
+12.8%
p90
+12.8%
p95
+12.8%

Sector specialization

Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative

No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.

Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (1), Tokenized Stocks (1)

Recent calls

Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.

  • $BONERrock fucking haaarrdd
    Posted
    3d ago
    Status
    Resolved
    24h
    +12.8%
    Max return
    +19.0%
    Drawdown
    -7.8%
    Lead time
    no +25% move

Cohorts

Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.

Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.