User quant profile

@lilone365

First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 3h ago8 theses on 1 token in 7d

LiveDelayed · scores 1m agoPublic Fomo profile

Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.

Research score

0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based

—/ 100

Insufficient dataToo few resolved calls to say anything reliable.

Based on 3 resolved calls

No score is shown: 3 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~12 Oct.

Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.

research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026

Research score history

Point-in-time snapshots · 3 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient

No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~12 Oct).

Author metrics

Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.

Theses

N = 8 posted

Theses posted up to the snapshot.

Hit rate

95% CI 0–56% · N = 3

Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.

Median lead time

—

N = 0 major moves

Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.

False positive rate

N = 3

No major move and a negative 3-day return.

Median drawdown after call

-4.2%

N = 3

Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.

Consistency

—

N = 3

Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.

Outcome volatility

σ 4.7%

N = 3

Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.

Sample size

resolved · 5 pending in view

Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.

Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call

N = 3 · Positive after 24h 100% (95% CI 44–100%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal

Median: +13.2%; CI +7.2% … +16.5%
Trimmed mean: +12.3%; 10% each side
Mean: +12.3%; σ 4.7%
Range: +7.2% … +16.5%

p5: +7.8%
p10: +8.4%
p25: +10.2%
p50: +13.2%
p75: +14.9%
p90: +15.9%
p95: +16.2%

Sector specialization

Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative

No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.

Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (3)

Recent calls

Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.

Token	Posted	Status	24h	Max return	Drawdown	Lead time
$CATECatecoin	3h ago	Pending	—	—	—	—
$CATE500m next	13h ago	Pending	—	—	—	—
$CATEHodl	22h ago	Pending	—	—	—	—
$CATE🐈	2d ago	Pending	-3.3%	—	—	—
$CATEgcate	2d ago	Pending	+2.8%	—	—	—
$CATEBack against the wall	3d ago	Resolved	+13.2%	+18.8%	-3.9%	no +25% move
$CATEI needed this kind of volatility in my life	3d ago	Resolved	+16.5%	+18.5%	-4.2%	no +25% move
$CATEG fucking cate	3d ago	Resolved	+7.2%	+14.0%	-7.8%	no +25% move

$CATECatecoin
Posted
3h ago
Status
Pending
24h
—
Max return
—
Drawdown
—
Lead time
—
$CATE500m next
Posted
13h ago
Status
Pending
24h
—
Max return
—
Drawdown
—
Lead time
—
$CATEHodl
Posted
22h ago
Status
Pending
24h
—
Max return
—
Drawdown
—
Lead time
—
$CATE🐈
Posted
2d ago
Status
Pending
24h
-3.3%
Max return
—
Drawdown
—
Lead time
—
$CATEgcate
Posted
2d ago
Status
Pending
24h
+2.8%
Max return
—
Drawdown
—
Lead time
—
$CATEBack against the wall
Posted
3d ago
Status
Resolved
24h
+13.2%
Max return
+18.8%
Drawdown
-3.9%
Lead time
no +25% move
$CATEI needed this kind of volatility in my life
Posted
3d ago
Status
Resolved
24h
+16.5%
Max return
+18.5%
Drawdown
-4.2%
Lead time
no +25% move
$CATEG fucking cate
Posted
3d ago
Status
Resolved
24h
+7.2%
Max return
+14.0%
Drawdown
-7.8%
Lead time
no +25% move

Cohorts

Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.

Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.