@kdogman
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 2d ago4 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 3 resolved calls
No score is shown: 3 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls; this account has posted 4 theses so far.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 3 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved.
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 3 · Positive after 24h 100% (95% CI 44–100%)
- Median
- +25.1%
- CI +2.5% … +34.0%
- Trimmed mean
- +20.5%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- +20.5%
- σ 16.3%
- Range
- +2.5% … +34.0%
- p5
- +4.7%
- p10
- +7.0%
- p25
- +13.8%
- p50
- +25.1%
- p75
- +29.6%
- p90
- +32.2%
- p95
- +33.1%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (3)
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $HOOKS$GM just went up 100%. CZ face in it. Looks like bnb season might be kicking off.
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -51.7%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKSFomo verification gon hit like crack in the 80s, there’s no reason it won’t happen soon 🔥
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +25.1%
- Max return
- +35.7%
- Drawdown
- -71.9%
- Lead time
- 2.0h
- $HOOKSDerisking some because btc looks shaky. I anticipate a leg higher and I’ll be sitting in a pool of my regret but it is what it is. Riding the rest 💪
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +2.5%
- Max return
- +28.4%
- Drawdown
- -73.4%
- Lead time
- 4.2h
- $HOOKSTeam claiming the fomo and flap audit done? Just wait for btc to stabilize or bounce even. Hooks will skyrocket 🔥
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +34.0%
- Max return
- +74.5%
- Drawdown
- -63.9%
- Lead time
- 1.1h
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.