@kavo
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 2d ago2 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 1 resolved call
No score is shown: 1 resolved call so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls; this account has posted 2 theses so far.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 1 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved.
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 1 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–79%)
- Median
- -41.0%
- Trimmed mean
- -41.0%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- -41.0%
- Range
- -41.0% … -41.0%
- p5
- -41.0%
- p10
- -41.0%
- p25
- -41.0%
- p50
- -41.0%
- p75
- -41.0%
- p90
- -41.0%
- p95
- -41.0%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Not enough samples in other sectors: AI Agents (1), Tokenized Stocks (1)
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $OWLReposting my original $OWL thesis from 5 days ago while we wait for the giga candle Back in 2014, Nick Bostrom published a book titled Superintelligence. The Superintelligence owl is the cover In the same year, Elon shouts it out and reccomends it: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/495759307346952192 In 2026, Elon tweets: " I CONTRIBUTED to Bostrom’s Superintelligence book and he thanks me by name in the foreword." He also tweets the cover of the book again to prove it was always si not ai: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2106672522771272121 a mascot of superintellignce handed to us by the biggest name in the world
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -41.2%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $OWLnew superintelligence merch is fire https://shop.tesla.com/product/built-for-any-planet-trucker-hat?sku=2078147-00-A
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- -41.0%
- Max return
- 0.0%
- Drawdown
- -62.6%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.