@jarmelo16
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 2d ago10 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 2 resolved calls
No score is shown: 2 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~11 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 2 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~11 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 2 · Positive after 24h 50% (95% CI 9–91%)
- Median
- +4.6%
- CI -2.5% … +11.7%
- Trimmed mean
- +4.6%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- +4.6%
- σ 10.0%
- Range
- -2.5% … +11.7%
- p5
- -1.8%
- p10
- -1.1%
- p25
- +1.0%
- p50
- +4.6%
- p75
- +8.1%
- p90
- +10.3%
- p95
- +11.0%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $HOOKEDI made my decision ill late fate do the rest
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -20.9%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDhad to do it
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -17.1%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDmarvelous dip
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -9.2%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDgoodmorning asia 👋
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -20.8%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDAsia sesh gona love ts
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -8.5%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDHi
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -20.9%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDLwk dip to 8 mill save some for asia
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -17.1%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDI think i look better with the lights onn
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -10.2%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $HOOKEDSelling before asia wakes up? Couldnt be fucking meeee lollll
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- -2.5%
- Max return
- +26.6%
- Drawdown
- -47.2%
- Lead time
- 3.3h
- $HOOKEDWhat a marvelous dip
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +11.7%
- Max return
- +39.9%
- Drawdown
- -41.7%
- Lead time
- 3.8h
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.