@friesinbagguy
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 1d ago5 theses on 2 tokens in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 1 resolved call
No score is shown: 1 resolved call so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~13 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 1 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~13 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 1 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–79%)
- Median
- -15.7%
- Trimmed mean
- -15.7%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- -15.7%
- Range
- -15.7% … -15.7%
- p5
- -15.7%
- p10
- -15.7%
- p25
- -15.7%
- p50
- -15.7%
- p75
- -15.7%
- p90
- -15.7%
- p95
- -15.7%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $BREWBurns are 8%+ Binance making it obvious what they want to be successful 👇🏻 https://x.com/bnbchain/status/2108844995956363309?s=46 This is a true billion $ narrative brewing
- Posted
- 1d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -9.5%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $BREWhttps://brew.family/analytics/ ☝🏼 today marks 5%+ of brew burned - brew burns with 50% of revenue, distributes 30% back to holders and operates on 20% 5% of brew supply burned forever Binance released this yesterday 👇🏻 https://x.com/binance/status/2108392223381315745?s=46 Just added a coffee cup high up on the balcony ledge for... Name another token 1.) with revenue they use to burn 2.) with revenue they airdrop to holders 3.) while the largest exchange soft/hard shills their meme: brew Early
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -15.0%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CZMost daily volume of any coin on brew eco Makes me laugh = winner
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -29.4%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CZSome of these short forms are damn funny Higher
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -3.1%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $BREWhttps://x.com/binance/status/2108137500891897868?s=46 Binance non stop reminding you about brew eco
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- -15.7%
- Max return
- +0.7%
- Drawdown
- -33.2%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.