@davetoo
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 2d ago6 theses on 1 token in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
Based on 2 resolved calls
No score is shown: 2 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~12 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 2 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~12 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 2 · Positive after 24h 100% (95% CI 34–100%)
- Median
- +14.1%
- CI +13.0% … +15.1%
- Trimmed mean
- +14.1%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- +14.1%
- σ 1.5%
- Range
- +13.0% … +15.1%
- p5
- +13.1%
- p10
- +13.2%
- p25
- +13.5%
- p50
- +14.1%
- p75
- +14.6%
- p90
- +14.9%
- p95
- +15.0%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (2)
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $CATEhttps://x.com/dave99715050791/status/2108618966394605608?s=46 RAIDDDDDDDDD
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -6.4%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEHOLD 141k holders so bullish
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +11.0%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATESUCH A FREE ENTRY IT HURTS THAT PEOPLE DONT USE COMMON SENSE 🐈💛💛
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +8.6%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATEI LOVE THIS COMMUNITY WATCH THE REVERSAL THIS WEEKEND 🐈🐈💛💛 DONT GET SHAKEN OUT ON THE RED DAYS
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +8.8%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $CATECATE IS GONNA REVIVE SOLANA NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND! 💛🐈🐈🐈🐈
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +15.1%
- Max return
- +18.6%
- Drawdown
- -4.1%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
- $CATEShii I’m staying, easy hold 🐈🐈💛💛💛💛
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +13.0%
- Max return
- +18.4%
- Drawdown
- -4.3%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
Cohorts
Auto cohorts and cohorts shared with you that include this account.
Not a member of any cohort you can see. Auto cohorts require minimum sample sizes.